Previews - Chasing Oscar

The following is a transcript of Curt Holman and Felicia Feaster’s predictions for the upcoming Academy Awards. You can also download and listen to the podcast by clicking here [mp3].</
FELICIA FEASTER’S PREDICTIONS</
Despite reviewing films for a living, the whims of the Academy Awards remain a mystery to me. I have yet to walk away from an Oscar party or poll with any cash, but almost inevitably leave with a sour taste in my stomach at what is rewarded in mainstream film. Predicting what will be nominated and what will win is an exercise in frustration. What I hope will be nominated and then win rarely is, though there are certainly some worthwhile potential nominees this year. To be able to predict winners, it’s best to put matters of taste aside and simply watch what groups such as the Screen Actors Guild or Directors Guild of America award. Below are my predictions for Academy Award nominees, based on the films that have already garnered industry awards.</
Best Picture</
Babel</
The Departed</
Dreamgirls</
Little Miss Sunshine</
The Queen</
I would be happy if either Scorsese’s The Departed, a tightly written, marvelously entertaining crime picture, or Stephen Frears’ equally engrossing, complex portrait of England’s frumpy monarch, The Queen, took home the top prize. Just hoping that virtually assures that neither film will win. There’s a chance that Clint Eastwood’s critically acclaimed Letters From Iwo Jima could sneak in here, too.</
Best Director</
Bill Condon, Dreamgirls</
Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Little Miss Sunshine</
Stephen Frears, The Queen</
Alejandro González Iñarritu, Babel</
Martin Scorsese, The Departed</
Ditto Frears and Scorsese. The fact that Scorsese has never won a director Oscar (nor Frears for that matter) proves the ultimate perversity of the Academy Awards. I don’t want to see film-crazed Scorsese’s face crumple with pain should he lose in this category again.</
Best Actor</
Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond</
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson</
Peter O’Toole, Venus</
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness</
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland</
Though the film had some problems, Forest Whitaker as Idi Amin was a marvel in The Last King of Scotland, showing both the charisma and the madness behind Uganda’s most notorious leader.</
Best Actress</
Penelope Cruz, Volver</
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal</
Helen Mirren, The Queen</
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada</
Kate Winslet, Little Children</
That the sleek, elegant Helen Mirren could make you believe she was a frumpy monarch was one thing. That she could make you identify with Queen Elizabeth’s outmoded worldview was an even more amazing feat. I’m pulling for Mirren, though I also loved Penelope Cruz as the earthy/sexy mama in Pedro Almodóvar’s Volver.</
Best Supporting Actor</
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine</
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed</
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children</
Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond</
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls</
I’m pulling for Jackie Earle Haley who was remarkable — sympathetic, reprehensible, poignant, grotesque — as the mommy-loving pedophile in Little Children.</
Best Supporting Actress</
Adriana Barraza, Babel</
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal</
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine</
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls</
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel</
No strong favorites here, though I am praying plucky Abigail Breslin will not break out any more “Superfreak” moves should she trot onstage to accept her award.</
Best Adapted Screenplay</
Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan; screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen and Anthony Hines and Peter Baynham and Dan Mazer; story by Sacha Baron Cohen, Peter Baynham, Anthony Hines and Todd Phillips; based on a character created by Sacha Baron Cohen</
The Departed; screenplay by William Monahan; based on the film Infernal Affairs; written by Alan Mak and Felix Chong</
The Devil Wears Prada; screenplay by Aline Brosh McKenna; based on the novel by Lauren Weisberger</
Little Children; screenplay by Todd Field and Tom Perrotta; based on the novel by Tom Perrotta</
Thank You For Smoking; screenplay by Jason Reitman; based on the novel by Christopher Buckley</
This seems to be a year of good novels and scripts made better or more interesting in their film adaptations — Todd Field and Tom Perrotta’s script felt like a more humane improvement on Perrotta’s scathing social comedy Little Children. And Aline Brosh McKenna’s script for The Devil Wears Prada brought some depth to the marshmallow-cream, superficial, chick-lit novel by Lauren Weisberger. William Monahan’s script for The Departed brought some interesting American texture to the original screenplay for the Hong Kong action source Infernal Affairs.</
Best Original Screenplay</
Babel, Guillermo Arriaga</
Little Miss Sunshine, Michael Arndt</
The Queen, Peter Morgan</
Stranger Than Fiction, Zach Helm</
United 93, Paul Greengrass</
Nuanced, layered, wonderful commentary on the increasingly ravenous public taste for access to the private lives of celebrities, Peter Morgan’s script for The Queen is a standout here.</
CURT HOLMAN’S PREDICTIONS</
The Academy’s favorite flavor tends to be big, muscle-bound period epics such as Gladiator, but such fare proved thin on the ground in 2006. Consequently, expect this year’s Oscar nominations to pile on idiosyncratic choices such as Little Miss Sunshine or Babel, unless they opt to emphasize “safer” fare such as Blood Diamond or Dreamgirls.</
Best Picture</
Babel</
The Departed</
Letters From Iwo Jima</
Little Miss Sunshine</
The Queen</
Likely Also-Ran: Children of Men</
Best Director</
Clint Eastwood, Letters From Iwo Jima</
Stephen Frears, The Queen</
Paul Greengrass, United 93</
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Babel</
Martin Scorsese, The Departed</
Likely Also-Ran: Guillermo del Toro, Pan’s Labyrinth</
Best Actor</
Matt Damon, The Good Shepherd</
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed</
Peter O’Toole, Venus</
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness</
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland</
Likely Also-Ran: Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat: Cultural Learnings of America For Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan</
Best Actress</
Penelope Cruz, Volver</
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal</
Helen Mirren, The Queen</
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada</
Kate Winslet, Little Children</
Likely Also-Ran: Naomi Watts, The Painted Veil</
Supporting Actor</
Steve Carell, Little Miss Sunshine</
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children</
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls</
Jack Nicholson, The Departed</
Brad Pitt, Babel</
Likely Also-Ran: Michael Sheen, The Queen</
Supporting Actress</
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal</
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine</
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls</
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel</
Catherine O’Hara, For Your Consideration</
Likely Also-Ran: Shareeka Epps, Half Nelson</
Best Adapted Screenplay</
The Departed; screenplay by William Monahan; based on the film Infernal Affairs; written by Alan Mak and Felix Chong</
Dreamgirls; screenplay by Bill Condon; based on the novel by Tom Eyen</
Flags of Our Fathers; screenplay by William Broyles Jr. and Paul Haggis; based on the book by James Bradley and Ron Powers</
Little Children; screenplay by Todd Field and Tom Perrotta; based on the novel by Tom Perrotta</
Notes on a Scandal; screenplay by Patrick Marber; based on the novel by Zoe Heller</
Likely Also-Ran: Thank You For Smoking; screenplay by Jason Reitman; based on the novel by Christopher Buckley</
Best Original Screenplay</
Babel, Guillermo Arriaga</
Blood Diamond, Charles Leavitt</
Little Miss Sunshine, Michael Arndt</
Pan’s Labyrinth, Guillermo del Toro</
The Queen, Peter Morgan</
Likely Also-Ran: Inside Man, Russell Gewirtz