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Virus 50 See our guide to COVID-19 in Atlanta (this page last updated )

Coronavirus: The Numbers

Tallying the cost

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Photo credit: Dallas/Adobe Stock

Mark Kooyman is the CEO/Discovery Chief at EXPERIENCE Insight Group, Inc. and a well-regarded market research guru who lives in Atlanta. Mark has been preparing the daily numbers for friends and family and has been kind enough to let us publish his results.

Saturday, June 6, 2020

The three key COVID-19 numbers for today in the U.S.

  • ACTIVE CASES COVID-19 — 52.1 percent, yesterday 52.6 percent
  • FULLY RECOVERED — 42.2 percent, yesterday 41.6 percent
  • DEATHS DIRECTLY / INDIRECTLY FROM COVID-19 — 5.7 percent, yesterday 5.8 percent

There are now 992,657 active cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. This is an increase of 3,224 active cases or 0.3 percent from yesterday.

As of 12:01 a.m. this morning, 975 additional individuals either directly or indirectly died from COVID-19, an increase of 0.9 percent bringing the total number to 109,773 deaths.

The number of COVID-19 patients classified as in “critical-serious condition” totaled 17,121 at 12:01 a.m. this morning.

There are now 803,446 COVID-19 survivors in the U.S. — a number that increased by 2.3 percent from 24 hours ago. The ratio of active to full recovered is currently 1:0.8 — a number edging closer to a 1:1 ratio.

A number of readers raised questions yesterday as to whether survivors of COVID-19 truly would be COVID-19 free for the rest of their life — some doubting that any sources made any similar conclusions.

First, nearly every source that pops up in Google searches notes that survivors are very, very likely to be COVID-19 free because their body “becomes programmed to combat any re-entry of the COVID-19.” Second, I encourage all readers to understand that COVID-19 is one of many virus strains that abound in which individuals become infected.  The way that the human body combats viruses is not novel. There are multiple studies of viruses and how the human body physically responds.  Sources used to put together these daily updates all stand by the viewpoint that individuals combatting COVID-19 are very, very unlikely to experience a relapse.

ATLANTA CORE COUNTIES & TWO OUTBREAK COUNTIES

Below is a chart of the five core Atlanta counties plus Dougherty and Hall Counties. Added to the weekly post is a column of currently active cases. This is based on the national 14 day recovery period and has been statistically calculated based on the tracked daily new cases over the past 8 weeks.

INSERT 6_6_chart#1_Atlanta

GREATER ATHENS-CLARKE COUNTY

Below is a chart of Athens-Clarke County and the five adjacent counties that comprise that “metro” area. Again, added to the weekly post is the column of currently active cases.

INSERT 6_6_chart#2_Athens

The economic numbers released yesterday indicate that the U.S. economy — and society — is bouncing back. What the U.S. went through over the past 90 days was not driven by market economics. 

Friday, June 5, 2020

The three key pandemic numbers for today:

  • ACTIVE COVID-19 CASES — 52.6 percent; yesterday, 55.5 percent
  • FULLY RECOVERED COVID-19 CASES — 41.6 percent; yesterday, 38.7 percent
  • DEATHS DIRECTLY/INDIRECTLY FROM COVID-19 — 5.8 percent; yesterday, 5.8 percent

 

As of 12:01 a.m. this morning, there are now 989,433 active cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. This is a decrease of 22,345 active cases, or 2.2 percent less than yesterday. The number of active cases is now below 1 million.

Also, as of 12:01 a.m. this morning, 1,031 additional individuals either directly or indirectly died from COVID-19, an increase of 0.9 percent, bringing the total number to 108,798 deaths.

The first COVID-19 death took place on February 8, 2020, in the U.S. Between February 8 and today, there have been 108,798 deaths directly or indirectly linked to COVID-19. During that same time span, there have been 205,784 individuals who have died directly from heart disease and another 190,356 individual who have died directly from cancer. Combined, those folks represent over 1 percent of the U.S. population.

The number of COVID-19 patients classified  in “critical-serious condition” totaled 17,083 at midnight, up slightly from 16,939 yesterday.

A total of 471,398 tests were administered in the U.S. yesterday, bringing the U.S. total of COVID-19 tests administered to date to 19,568,069, the next closest nation to in the administration of tests is Russia at 11,733,051.

There are now 782,252 COVID-19 survivors in the U.S., a number that increased 5.9 percent from yesterday, and, a number that will be increasing quickly as state definitions of “full recovery stats” time out and more survivors join the statistical ranks.

Below is a breakdown of the number of active cases as of 12:01 a.m. this morning, and one week ago, Friday, June 5. There are dramatic declines of active cases in states like Illinois and Massachusetts. Cases in New York, New Jersey Michigan and Pennsylvania posted significant declines one week ago. The number of active cases in Georgia, Florida and Ohio are based on the 14 day cycle used by Washington and the vast majority of States.


All 50 states have now begun pulling back “lock-down” restrictions. A large number of the population is leaving the house and getting back into mainstream society. Globally, there is not one single country that, in rolling back lock-down mandates, is experiencing a surge in new COVID-19 cases. Whether taking place back in March during college spring break; or back in April when the beaches re-opened; or back in May, over the course of Memorial Day weekend; or now, during marches and protests; there is not only no surge in new COVID-19 cases, the number of new cases per day has hovered around 20,000 over the course of the last four weeks.

My suggestion for this weekend is to turn off the stream of conventional digital and broadcast news media. Read your local alternative news weeklies and your local neighborhood newspapers instead. Replace CNN with TCM. Replace FOX News with FOX Sports. And replace MSNBC with NBC Sitcoms. Consider buying some fireworks and launching them to celebrate the number of active COVID-19 cases declining below 1 million.

Those active cases — 989,433 active cases — represent 3/10ths of one percent of our U.S. population of 330,342,293 folks. As the fireworks light up the sky, celebrate the 782,252 individuals who, as of today have battled COVID-19 and are alive. They represent 2/10ths of 1 percent of our U.S. population.

Georgia specific numbers are coming tomorrow.

Thursday, June 4, 2020

The set of the three numbers for today in the United States:

  • ACTIVE CASES — 54.4 percent; yesterday 55.5 percent
  • FULLY RECOVERED — 39.8 percent; yesterday 38.7 percent
  • DIED DIRECTLY / INDIRECTLY — 5.8 percent; yesterday 5.8 percent

As of 12:01 a.m. this morning, there are now 1,011,778 active cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. That is a decrease of 9,201 cases or 0.9 percent from yesterday.

As of 12:01 a.m. this morning, 1,083 additional individuals either directly or indirectly died from COVID-19, an increase of 1.0 percent brining the total number to 107,767.

The number of critical-level COVID-19 cases totaled 16,939 at 12:01 a.m. this morning, and accounted for 1.7 percent of individuals currently active with COVID-19.

The number of COVID-19 executed tests surpassed 19 million yesterday in the U.S. As of 7:30 a.m., 19,096,671 individuals in the U.S. have been tested.

There are now 738,670 COVID-19 survivors in the U.S. The survivor number increased 4.5 percent within the last 24 hours.

Some of you may be aware of Dr. Neil Ferguson, the British epidemiologist who predicted earlier this year more than 2.2 million deaths that would result from COVID-19 and advocated that governments shelter residents in their homes.

His model was used by many governments, the U.S. included, as the justification for taking “stay-at-home” mandates. In the last week, Dr. Ferguson has issued a new report — using global data before, during and now as restrictions are being relaxed — that the original model he issued was incorrect.

Dr. Ferguson now say the number of deaths that have resulted from COVID-19 — 388,510 total globally as of 7:30 a.m. this morning — might not have changed, whether the “stay-at-home” mandates had been enacted or not.

Wednesday, June 3,2020

Moving forward, I am going to begin with a new number set for the U.S. which will showcase the three key percentage breakdowns of the total number of COVID-19 cases reported to date. The three percentages will reflect the percentage of active COVID-19 cases, the next percentage will reflect the number of full-case survivors, and the third percentage will reflect the number of individuals who directly or indirectly died related to COVID-19.

For today, the set of three numbers in the U.S. includes:

  • Active cases: 55.5 percent
  • Fully recovered cases: 38.7 percent
  • Died directly or indirectly cases: 5.8 percent.

 

Each day moving forward, the set of three numbers — based on the information released as of 12:01 a.m. that morning — will be posted as well as those of the day before. On Friday of every week, I will include a table of the three percentages for each day of the week to showcase trends.

As of 12:01 a.m. this morning, there are now 1,020,979 active cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. That is a decrease of 3,810 cases, or 0.4 percent, from yesterday.

Also as of 12:01 a.m., there have been an additional 1,134 deaths either directly or indirectly related to COVID-19, an increase of 1.1 percent, bringing the total number of deaths to 106,684.

The number of “critical/serious” cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. increased by 165 patients from 16,949 yesterday to 17,114 as of 7:30 a.m. this morning.

Also, as of 7:30 a.m. this morning, a total of 18,603,174 COVID-19 tests have been conducted in the U.S.  That is the largest number of tests conducted by any one country. Russia comes in #2 with a total of tests conducted of just over 11 million.

Lastly, as reflected in the three percentages highlighted above, of the individuals testing positive with COVID-19, 38.7 percent, or 706,974 individuals, have combatted the coronavirus and are now active in their daily lives. This is an increase of 3.1 percent over the past 24 hours.

I do like to bet and I will place $100 on the table that this time next week, the number of individual currently testing positive with COVID-19 and classified as “ACTIVE” will be in a range of 75,000 cases of the number of past individuals now fully recovered. Right now, for every person currently active with COVID-19, there are 0.7 individuals fully recovered, a 1.0:0.7 ratio. Next week, I say we will be close to a 1.0:1.0 ratio.

Tuesday, June 2, 2020

As of 12:01 a.m. this morning, there are now 1,024,789 active cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. That is a decrease of 14,126 cases, or 1.4 percent, from yesterday. Again, this is based on a set of numbers issued by the CDC, Johns Hopkins, and World Numbers, and takes in new cases as well as state-designated full recoveries and deaths.

In the past 24 hours since the issuance of yesterday’s numbers, there have been 730 additional deaths either direct or indirectly related to COVID-19 — an increase of 0.6 percent bringing the total number to 105,550 deaths in the United States.

An article in this morning’s Wall Street Journal highlighted a report issued by the Centers of Medicare and Medicaid Services yesterday. The study identified that at least 25,923 of the COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. — as of May 29, 2020 — were tied directly to nursing home facilities.  In addition it identified that 449 individuals working at the nursing homes also died from illnesses related to COVID-19. Based on the number of deaths reported May 29, the nursing home facility deaths accounts for just over 25 percent, or one out of every four, COVID-19 deaths in the U.S.

As of 7:30 a.m., a total of 18,154,510 COVID-19 tests were completed in the U.S. — an increase of 481,943 from yesterday. Currently, the ratio of tests completed to positive identification is 22 to 1. That is, for every 22 tests administered, 1 new case is identified. Yesterday a radio campaign broke in Greater Atlanta advertising free COVID-19 tests now available at testing centers for anyone interested in taking a test — no pre-existing symptoms need to be present.  The promotion of the tests will be interesting to assess in terms of the impact on the ratio of tests and positive case identification.

The number of critical/serious COVID-19 cases has dropped slightly from yesterday and the average over the past week to 16,920 individuals.

Lastly, I issued state-wide numbers yesterday that showcased a more consistent assessment of full recoveries that brought states like Georgia and Florida into a better comparative perspective.

The chart below takes the Georgia numbers and applies them specifically to the Greater Athens-Clarke County area. A number of those receiving the updates have roots in Greater Athens. The chart lists out the confirmed cases and confirmed COVID-19-related deaths from Saturday, May 30, to today, June 2. The green column adds an active case set of numbers that provides a much more realistic perspective. Of the 1,054 COVID-19 cases tracked, 639 of those cases are currently active, 51 of the people have died directly or indirectly related to COVID-19, and 364 individuals are now fully-recovered using the 14 day qualifier used in the majority of the U.S. States.

 

Monday, June 1, 2020

Welcome to June … and an interesting set of numbers for Monday morning.

Below you will see some comparisons of where we were exactly four weeks ago, on May 4, and today. Over that course of time, nearly all the states have relaxed their stay-at-home ordinances and reopened businesses. As of today, sit-down dining will be reopening in more than two-dozen states if it wasn’t already reopened.

As of 12:01 a.m. this morning, there are now 1,038,915 active cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. That is a decrease of 31,917 cases, or 3.0 percent, from yesterday as more patients clear through the individual state qualifiers.

As much as the total case numbers that the mainstream media channels promote generates misperceptions of actuals, the total number of individuals who are either currently active with COVID-19, have died from COVID-19, and who have fully recovered fully-recovered from COVID-19 today is 1,793,602. On May 4, it was 1,188,826. That is a difference of 604,776 individuals, or 50.8 percent more. However, the number of active cases of COVID-19 today is 1,038,915. On May 4, that number was 941,261, making for a difference of 97,654 individuals, or 10.4 percent more.

As of 12:01 a.m. this morning, there are now 104,820 individuals in the U.S. who have either directly or indirectly died related to COVID-19. That is an increase of 638 individuals, or 0.6 percent, from yesterday.

Again, 4 weeks ago the total number individuals that either directly or indirectly died related to COVID-19 was 68,598.  That is a difference of 36,222 or 52.8 percent more.  Back 4 weeks ago, the average number of deaths per day for the week leading into 5/4 was 2,200 deaths.  The average number of deaths per day for the past week from today is 980 deaths.

The number of COVID-19 individuals classified as in “critical/serious” condition on 5/4 was 28,540.  The number of COVID-19 individuals classified as “critical/serious” today is 17,075.  Interestingly, there is are 10.4 percent more active cases today than 4 weeks ago, but the number of individuals at a “critical/serious” level is about a third fewer.

The number of tests completed in the U.S. as of May 4th was 7,196,740.  This is a number of tests conducted since they initially were used more than 60 days prior.  The number of tests completed as of 7:30am this morning in the U.S. stands at 17,672,567… and increase of just under 10.5 million more … in a time space of 28 days!  The number of tests completed each day back on May 4th was about 120,000.  Today, the average number of tests completed each day averages 450,000.

The number of full individuals classified as fully recovered by each individual State on May 4th was 180,152.  As of midnight last night, the number of individuals designated by each individual State has now surpasses 600,000 and registered a daily increase of 8.8 percent from 24 hours ago — 649,867.  That is an increase of 360.7 percent.  Unfortunately, the mainstream media fails to report that number.

As more individuals fully recovered and the number of active cases declines, so does the incidence level of individuals positively active with COVID-19.  The chart below is current from the statistics released by CDC, Johns Hopkins and World Meter at midnight last night.  Please note that the number of fully recovered individuals in States that include Georgia, Florida, Indiana and Ohio are recorded differently on the local case release levels because of the additional 2 weeks recovery the individual states maintain before an individual is classified as “fully recovered.”  These numbers are generated from a common national qualifier of 2 weeks instead.

The percentage of Active Case is the actual percentage.  For example in Georgia, the 28,538 active cases accounts for 0.266 percent of our statewide population of 10,736,200 residents.  The reverse claim can also be made… 99.7 percent of the residents of Georgia are not currently active with COVID-19.

 

Sunday, May 31, 2020

As of 12:01 a.m. this morning, there are now 1,070,832 active cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. That is an increase of 10,606 from yesterday or 1.3 percent.

The number of deaths either directly or indirectly related to COVID-19 increased by 1,015 deaths in the past 24 hours or an increase of 1.0 percent to 104,182.

Again, limited change in critical cases, to 17,163 as of midnight from 17,204 yesterday.

The number of those achieving full-recovery according to individual state qualifiers is just shy now of 600,000 — 598,238 — an increase of 2.0 percent from yesterday.

The total number of tests conducted in the U.S. increased from 16,810,778 reported yesterday to 17,270,841 as of 7:30 a.m. this morning, an increase of 460,063 tests.  Again, no other country comes close to the number of tests being conducted and the number of positive cases identified hovers around 5 percent.

Below is a chart of the current COVID-19 case status in six European Countries. First, note the number of recoveries compared to active cases. No surprise, Denmark has similar “full case recovery” parameters defined as does Georgia.

What is most interesting is that with the full recovery status, there are similar increases in active cases as in the U.S. Again, the number of active cases in the U.S. average between 0.8 percent and 1.5 percent each day over the last week.

 

Saturday, May 30, 2020

Today’s release includes details of cases in Atlanta and Greater Athens.

As of 12:01 a.m. this morning, there are now 1,060,226 active cases of COVID-19 in the U.S.  That is a decrease of just below 12,000 (11,987) or 1.1 percent.

In the past, I have shared that the qualifiers of “active” and “recovered” vary by state. In Georgia, a person not only has to survive through the quarantined two weeks, but they also have to wait another two weeks before they are declared fully recovered. Pennsylvania, Florida, New York, Michigan and California do not constrain the case the additional two weeks.

Illustrated in the Georgia numbers below are active cases if Georgia followed the same standards of the other key states.

The number of deaths either directly or indirectly related to COVID-19 increased by 1,212 deaths in the past 24 hours or an increase of 1.2 percent to 103,167.

The number of critical care COVID-19 cases is 17,204 vs. 17,202 yesterday. The demand on hospitals has declined to very manageable levels. There are no hospitals in the U.S. reporting over-demand.

As of 7:30 a.m. this morning, the number of COVID-19 survivors in the U.S. now totals 586,569 individuals — an increase of 6.5 percent from 24 hours ago.

Below are the statistics for the five core counties of Atlanta and the outbreaks in Hall and Dougherty Counties. The number of confirmed cases increased by 17.8 percent or an average daily increase of 2.5 percent.

There are three key points to make relevant to the Core Atlanta Counties:

  1. There is an increase in confirmed cases from one week ago. However, the number of cases identified has increased as testing sites expanded into the three key counties — DeKalb, Gwinnett and Clayton.
  2. While the confirmed cases in Atlanta has increased, the five counties still account for a slightly higher percentage of the state population vs. the percentage of COVID-19 cases.
  3. The number of deaths is slowing in the core counties at a similar pace state-wide.


The number of cases and deaths in Hall County have increased at a higher pace in the past week. Dougherty county has remained at similar pace rates.

If Georgia used a 2-week survival qualifier — as used in top key states like New York — and we took the total core Atlanta case number of 16,145,  subtracted out the number of confirmed deaths of 682, and then subtracted out the number of active cases from two weeks ago, 12,445, we would net 3,018 active cases. The State currently reports 15,208 active cases in the five core Atlanta counties.


Next is an update of the Greater Athens-Clarke County region.

The number of confirmed cases increased over 20 percent in the past week with the highest percentage increases taking place in Madison, Athens-Clarke and Jackson Counties. However, the number of deaths increased at a slower pace than the week before. This translates to an average daily increase of 2.8 percent.

Using the same process of assessing active cases as illustrated above for the core Atlanta counties, the number of active cases would total 241. The State currently reports 957 active cases in the six county region.

 

Friday, May 29, 2020

As of 12:01 a.m. this morning, there are now 1,072,213 active cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. That is an increase of 0.8 percent from yesterday or an 8,810 net case gain. That is essentially the same net increase from yesterday.

Just under 60 percent of the new active cases are concentrated in ten states. Georgia is not one of them. Historically high case volume states that are in that top ten include New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Virginia, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and Illinois. California is also among the ten states.

The number of deaths either directly or indirectly related to COVID-19 increased by 1,223 deaths in the past 24 hours or an increase of 1.2 percent, to 101,955.

The number of critical care COVID-19 cases is at 17,202 vs. 17,166 yesterday. This is lower than 17,902, the number that I reported last Friday.

As of 7:30 a.m. this morning, the number of COVID-19 survivors now totals 550,725 individuals — an increase of 2.3 percent from 24 hours ago. The survival number that I reported last Friday 5/22 was 394,562 individuals.

I won my bet. The total number of COVID-19 tests now completed in the U.S. as of 7:30 a.m. this morning totals 16,331,312 — over the 16.2 estimate I projected yesterday.

Last night I dined out at a restaurant here in Georgia. It was a great experience and I made sure that the staff was well tipped for their service. In the discussion, a couple of individuals again made the assertion that there is a significant number of individuals in the U.S. who had the coronavirus in the past that are not accounted for and that as the house-bound bans are lifted, there will be a resurgence of a whole new round of COVID-19.

I share this because it is related to the number of tests that topped out over 16.3 million now completed in the U.S.

Below is new chart the key states I have tracked. The chart reports the number of active COVID-19 cases from midnight last night and compares the count to the number of active COVID-19 cases 10-days ago.

The important number is at the very bottom of the chart and posted in BOLD type.

The total number active cases of COVID-19: from 10 days ago to today, that number has increased by 10,614 cases.


Between May 19 and now, May 29, the number of COVID-19 tests increased by close to 4 million. It is now two weeks since conditional constraints on having a test have been removed. There are more individuals who are being tested who currently are not exhibiting conditions related to the COVID-19.

If the myth of many individuals walking around that have had COVID-19 in the past and recovered with little-to-no knowledge that they had it, we would be seeing a significant increase in identified cases. And we haven’t.

Lastly, a study was conducted at Yale about wearing masks. The study assessed the use of masks among the general population, individual stage levels of the coronavirus within infected individuals and the overall level of the COVID-19 within the population as a whole, what is referred to as the “R” factor.

When the “R” factor is below 1.0, the coronavirus has stopped spreading.  When the “R” factor reaches 1.2, the coronavirus is spreading.  When the “R” factor reaches 2.0, critical steps are warranted.

The chart below is where states are currently at in relationship to the “R” factor as of this morning. The state posting the highest “R” factor is Tennessee and it is just barely over 1.0 at 1.06.


The Yale report notes that currently in the U.S., about 35 percent of the population wear masks when out in public. It also specifically reports that masks are most effective with the “R” factors are at levels higher than 1.5.

The “R” factor here in Georgia is currently at 0.89 and the coronavirus is not spreading.

If you elect to wear a mask and it makes you personally feel more protected, I encourage you to wear it.

Thursday, May 28, 2020

As of 12:01 a.m. this morning, there are now 1,063,403 active cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. That is an increase of 0.8% from yesterday or a net increase of 8,850.

The number of deaths either directly or indirectly related to COVID-19 increased by 1,535 deaths in the past 24 hours — an increase of 1.5% — to 100,732.

The mass media from print to digital to broadcast is dominated by news stories this morning on the number of deaths surpassing 100,000. I have yet to see a mass media news story about the number of COVID-19 patients having fully combatted the coronavirus and returning back into the mainstream. In that respect, the U.S. has now surpassed half-a-million people. Specifically, as of 7:30 a.m. this morning, that number now totals 538,403 survivors — an increase of 1.9% from 24 hours ago.

The number of tests completed in the U.S. as of 7:30 a.m. is just over 15.9 million. I’m willing to bet that by the same time tomorrow, the number of COVID-19 tests completed in the U.S. will reach more than 16.2 million. That will be an increase of more than 2 million from where we were in the U.S. one week ago.

I also bet that none of the mainstream media will craft a news story out of it. Thank the dear Lord for alternative news outlets like Creative Loafing in Atlanta and the Sun-Times in Chicago!

Again, there is very limited change in the number of COVID-19 critical cases in the U.S. — as of this morning, that number is 17,166, yesterday that number was 17,158.

Yesterday, I sent out a summary chart of cases here in Georgia that showcased new daily numbers of COVID-19 cases and the number of COVID-19 tests completed and tracked over time. I hope that the timing of those charts assisted readers in providing an alternative perspective from what the mainstream Atlanta media focused on in their story of the “new increased cases of COVID-19 appearing in Georgia.”

Stepping back from the daily numbers and comparing statistics over time provides a much more realistic perspective than reporting snapshots of daily fluctuations.

The first chart below, issued by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation pertains to New York State. The second chart below pertains to Georgia. The charts are providing the daily numbers of deaths over the course of time. Please take note of the scale of numbers on the left-hand vertical bar of the charts.  The New York State chart goes from “0 - 1,000 (1K).”  The Georgia chart goes from “0 - 60.”

When daily counts are low, daily fluctuations become more pronounced. Second, over the course of the weekend and into Monday of this week, the daily numbers in Georgia did increase, but when stepping back and looking at the full picture, it is very apparent that Georgia deaths are on a decline as well.

I guess that the old adage that a picture — or in this case a graphic chart — is worth a thousand words is smack on track.

 

Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Yesterday was another day of less than 1,000 deaths in the U.S. either directly or indirectly linked to COVID-19. The total number was 774, or an increase of 0.8 percent, to a new total of 99,197.

As I have reported since last week, the raw count numbers of new cases hovers right at 20,000. In the past 24 hours, 19,049 new cases were identified.

A calculation that has also been used in the daily updates in the past is the ratio between completed COVID-19 tests in the U.S. and the total number of cases to-date. Nationally in the U.S., that number is 11.1 percent across the time period of the first case reported and today. Essentially for every 9 individuals exhibiting symptoms that could be indicators of COVID-19, 1 individual has tested positive with the Coronavirus. I will reference this national number in the text below.

As of 12:01 a.m., there are now 1,054,553 active cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. That is a decline of 1.4 percent from the number of active cases 24 hours ago.

The number of survivors now exceeds 500,000 — 527,969 individuals back in mainstream. America — an increase of 6.7 percent from this same time yesterday.

The number of individuals actively combatting COVID-19 who are hospitalized and classified as in critical condition remains essentially unchanged from yesterday — 17,158 individuals or 1.6 percent of the current number of individuals active with the Coronavirus.

For fellow Georgians, I have included a set of specific updates:

As of this morning at 8 a.m., there are currently 41,391 active COVID-19 cases in Georgia. In terms of the number of active cases, on a state-by-state comparison, Georgia ranks #9 in raw count.

As of 8 a.m. this morning, the number of total cases per 10,000 individuals nationally in the U.S. currently stands at 52.1 — again, this is a combination of those currently active, those fully recovered and those who have died either directly or indirectly from COVID-19. In terms of cases per 10,000 state-wide residents, Georgia ranks below the national level — at #20 — of 42.6 total cases per 10,000 individuals. This remains unchanged from what was reported last week.

The ratio between completed COVID-19 tests and the total number of cases-to-date for the U.S. is 11.1 percent, as shared earlier. In Georgia, that ratio is significantly lower at 8.0 percent. Essentially for every 12 individuals exhibiting symptoms that could be indicators of COVID-19, one individual has tested positive with the Coronavirus in Georgia.

I have included the chart below based on a release from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation that is tracking estimated infections, confirmed infections, and the number of tests conducted to date, as of 8 a.m. this morning.

There are two key insights in the chart.

1. Since the Georgia governor eased up the restrictions and re-opened communities and economies at the end of April, the RED CIRCLE shows that there has been no jump in daily infections — and that is illustrated in the dark red line of those being tested and the shaded dotted line of possible total infection not being assessed through tests.

2. Just yesterday a college student voiced a very strong opinion of this vast population walking around with undetected levels of COVID-19 that will be “spreading it around like a tidal wave” as the restrictions ease up here in Georgia. He contends that there are so few tests being conducted that no one is picking it up. The BLUE ARROWS indicate the increased levels of testing being completed here in Georgia and the red line of compares it again confirmed cases. As tests increase, the level of confirmed cases remains virtually the same, there are no jumps being driven by this “vast population walking around with undetected levels of COVID-19.”


Yesterday, I had three phone calls with CEOs who granted my company three new projects, two in the Midwest and one in the Southeast. The economy is coming back… and will return to pre-COVID-19 levels quicker than many think. 

Tuesday, May 26, 2020

Two news sources I have used for the updates have stopped publishing daily case statistics. No surprise. Those two sources are based out of New York. As some journalists say, good news is not circulation-building news.

Yesterday afternoon, Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York made news again by announcing that for the first time since the first week of March, the number of deaths from the Coronavirus in the state of New York totaled less than 100.

In fact, nationally, 505 deaths occurred yesterday in the U.S. directly or indirectly from COVID-19, bringing the total tracked deaths either directly or indirectly linked to COVID-19 — through the sources used to complete these daily summaries — to 98,423.

The number of new U.S. cases in terms of raw count numbers has hovered at 20,000 additional individuals testing positive with COVID-19 over the past 10 days. Over the past 24 hours, the number of new cases identified totals 19,790.

The total of current active cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. is now 1,069,577. That is a net decrease of 0.3% from yesterday.

Over the past 24 hours, the number of tests conducted increased by 200,000 to bring the total number of tests completed to-date in the U.S. to 15.3 million.

The number of full COVID-19 case recoveries now totals 494,670 individuals, an increase of 4.9% over the past 24 hours.

Monday, May 25, 2020

The numbers are not extensive today, but they continue to be very positive.

As of 12:01 AM this morning, there are now 1,073,260 ACTIVE cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. That number is 8,188 less active cases than yesterday or a decline of 0.6%.

To help put that shift in active cases into perspective, according to the worldwide numbers tracked by World Meter, there are currently 2.9 million active COVID19 cases on a global level, and yes, the U.S. represents just under 40% of those cases, but there are now 2.3 million past cases of COVID-19 globally that are fully recovered and back in mainstream society.

As of this morning, 347,000 individuals globally and 97,918 individuals in the U.S. have died directly or indirectly of COVID-19.

Serious/critical cases into the U.S. remains unchanged from yesterday — just over 17,000 individuals.

Just over 15 million tests have now been completed in the U.S. and currently anyone can secure a test. In addition, a week from today — June 1, 2020 — many states will be lifting dine-in-the-restaurant restrictions with many restaurants regularly testing their staff at least 2-3 times per week. There are predictions that the number of tests completed in the U.S. will double in 10 days to -2 weeks from now.

As of midnight, there are now 471,702 individuals who have fully recovered from COVID-19 and are back in mainstream society.  This will be an interesting number to watch over the course of the next seven to 10 days as many sources predict we will see significant gains.

Yesterday at noon, I had a Burger King Whopper and sat at a table inside the restaurant enjoying the meal. There were three other tables of individuals sitting in the Burger King.  The television screens had a regular Sunday roundtable that is broadcast each week from one of the cable news networks which will go nameless.

Governor Cuomo had just completed his Sunday updates. The news commentators struggled to provide commentary.  Cuomo not only shared declining cases in New York, he went on to cite the lowest levels of COVID-19 individuals hospitalized in New York. In addition, he shared how restrictions were going to be further removed across the state with schools re-opening and sports returning.

One of the guys sitting at an adjacent table — and yes it was 6 feet away — commented that watching the news commentators was like watch squirrels sitting in the middle of the street blinded by the headlights of an on-coming car.

I replied, “Amen.” After all, it was a Sunday!

Sunday, May 24, 2020

Moving forward, I have elected to stop reporting total cases of individuals who have or have had COVID-19 and instead concentrate on active cases.  As more and more individuals fully recover, the total case number becomes meaningless.

Also, I am seeing how more and more news sources are concentrating not only on total cases because of its size, they have all of a sudden become graphic mavens focusing on the charts because that number will always climb. In the weekend edition of the Wall Street Journal, there is a two page spread with 51 charts showing total cases continuing to increase, in the 50 states and the District of Columbia.

As of midnight, there are now 1,079,327 active cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. That number is 2,121 less active cases than yesterday or a decline of 0.2%. Over the course of the next week, this number is expected to vacillate, but in a week, it is expect to be significantly lower than it is today.

Active cases that are hospitalized and classified as serious essentially remains unchanged from yesterday — 17,183 cases. To help put that number into perspective, in January of this year the American Hospital Association published that there are 924,107 staffed hospital beds in the U.S.

The number of deaths from COVID-19 increased just over 1.0% from 95,995 to 97,301 — or 1,036 new deaths occurring in the past 24 hours. Below is a chart of the daily death counts in the U.S. as tracked by Worldmeter. The tracking clearly confirm that we are now “over the hump,” as some news sources report.


The number of full recoveries increased by 3.2% and now totals 446,914 COVID-19 survivors.

A number of sources report that there is a fluctuation by state on what is being classified as “full recovery” in which the timeframe varies. States like New York, New Jersey and Georgia are more contingent on the number of days allocated to the timeframe of “full recovery” vs. states like Michigan and Louisiana that are less contingent.

That said, in the chart below are the statistics as reported by Johns Hopkins University Systems Science and Engineering and released this morning at 7:30 AM.


A good share of states released restrictions on community activity more than three weeks ago and the number of active cases continues to decline.

I will issue a set of new stats on Memorial Day.

Saturday, May 23, 2020

As I do on Saturdays, included below is more information relative to the core counties of Atlanta and also the greater Athens-Clarke County region.

As of 12:01 AM, the number of individuals in the U.S. that currently have or have had COVID-19 as tracked through testing measures now totals 1,601,344, an increase of 24,197 individuals or 1.5%. The percentage increase from one day to the next has remained essentially the same over the past week.

As of 12:01 AM, the number of active cases in the U.S. now totals 1,081,448 individuals or a net gain of 1,172 over 1,080,276 this same time yesterday. The active case total is being offset by the number of individuals moving to full recovery status.

The number of individuals now fully recovered in the U.S. totals 423,901 which is an increase of 5.4% from yesterday.

The number of deaths either directly or indirectly related to COVID-19 increased by 1,293 deaths in the past 24 hours to 95,995 which is an increase of 1.4% from yesterday.

The first chart below provides an update for today, May 23, using the same chart sent of Saturday.  I highlighted in red where there is an increase in the percentage change or numerical change from last week.

In terms of confirmed cases, there is a slightly higher percentage of confirmed cases found in Gwinnett County vs. the increase a week ago; however, overall, the  number of confirmed cases in the five county Atlanta core is slowing in growth.

Most important is that teams in both Gainesville-Hall County and Albany-Dougherty County are bringing the Georgia state “hot spots” under better control as the number of cases and deaths are slowing considerably.

The number of deaths in the five county Atlanta core have increased at a slightly higher rate overall with the most notable gains taking place in DeKalb and Fulton County.


It has been an interesting week in greater Athens-Clarke County where there is a slightly higher percentage increase in the last week than the week before it. Please keep in mind that these numbers of cases are reflective of all cases identified to date and include those individuals who passed as well as those individual who are now fully recovered.

Most notable is the significant increase of the total confirmed COVID-19 cases in Oconee County, an increase of more than 50% in one week. And secondly, the impact of the COVID-19 case breakouts in Hall County and the effect of those cases on the adjacent Barrow and Jackson Counties.

To help put the confirmed cases into perspective, Athens-Clarke County represents 35.4% of the six county metro population highlighted below. As of today, Athens-Clarke County accounts for 26.1% of the total COVID-19 cases in the region. This translates to an index of 74 or, in layman terms, Athens-Clarke County posts 26% below it’s proportionate share of total COVID-19 cases confirmed to-date in the six county region.

In turn, Barrow and Jackson Counties combined represent just of half — 50.8% — of the total COVID-19 cases confirmed to-date in the six county region. Those two counties together account for 41.5% of the total COVID-19 cases in the region. This translates to an index of 122 or, the two counties combined post 22% above their proportionate share of total COVID-19 cases confirmed to-date in the six county region.

Oconee County posts a significant number of new cases identified. Oconee County represents 10.8% of the six county metro population. As of today, Oconee County accounts for 12.2% of the total COVID-19 cases in the region.  This translates to an index of 113, or, Oconee County posts 13% above its proportionate share of total COVID-19 cases confirmed to-date in the six county region.

Other than one additional death occurring in Oglethorpe County in the past week, the other 7 deaths occurring in the same seven days in the six county region took place in Oconee, Barrow and Jackson Counties.


Lastly, from a set of sources that I use to put together these daily updates, of the 839 total case taking place in the 6 county greater Athens-Clarke County region, 39 resulted in death or 4.6% of the total cases. There are apparently a total of 722 active cases of COVID-19 at some stage of recovery, meaning that 78 individuals are now totally clear and back active again in society, or, 9.3% of the total cases identified to-date.

These numbers translate to a current active case percentage of 0.197% of the regional population — a slight increase from last week, but much lower than Georgia overal, 0.363%, and the U.S. overall, 0.347%. To put that into a different context, essentially 99.8% of the Greater Athens-Clarke County region are not actively combatting COVID-19 and the share that may test positive in the next several days is minimal. In the last week, the additional identified cases, 105, - represent 0.029% of the Greater Athens-Clarke County region.

Please enjoy this Memorial Day weekend and do take a moment to honor those who have lost their lives defending our rights as Americans to be here today… some wearing masks and others not!

Friday, May 22, 2020

As of 12:01 AM this morning, the number of individuals in the U.S. that currently have or have had COVID-19 as tracked through testing measures now totals 1,577,147, an increase of 25,479 individuals, or 1.6%.

As highlighted yesterday, the identification of new cases is directly related to the increased number of individuals being tested.

As of 12:01 AM, the number of active cases in the U.S. now totals 1,808,276 individuals. As I have said before, the number of active cases is affected by the number of full recoveries and the number of deaths.

The number of individuals now fully recovered totals 402,169, an increase of 8.4% from this same time yesterday, 7:30 AM. The number of deaths directly or indirectly related to the COVID-19 now totals 94,702, an increase of 1,418 deaths.

There is increasing discrepancy between sources used for these daily updates on the number of deaths in the U.S. As I shared yesterday, the CDC is issuing more rigid classification guidelines and the insurance companies are re-evaluating past claims. I try to keep the sources consistent to keep past reporting comparative with current numbers, but will make notation as differences surface.

As of 7:30 AM this morning and according to CDC and Johns Hopkins tracking numbers, the number of COVID-19 tests conducted in the U.S. is just shy of 14.5 million.

There are two sets of numbers that are included in today’s update.

Yesterday afternoon I had the pleasure of engaging in conversation with a couple of University academics. The issue of discussion centered around two issues. One of the topics was directly linked to the “large population of individuals carrying COVID-19 and not aware of it,” an issue noted yesterday. The second issue of discussion centered around a re-surge in COVID-19 cases as society get’s out-of-the-house and the population mingles together again.

My mission with the daily releases is to provide a source of simple and consistent statistics for readers of great newspapers like Creative Loafing in Atlanta and cool folks to have as a grounding resource to use to fashion their own personal pathways through the COVID-19 crisis.

In reviewing the two issues raised by some cool academics, we have to remember that COVID-19 was passed through Europe and Canada before it entered the U.S.  As a result, many other countries are further down the timeline than we are here in the U.S.  Many of these countries, Germany being a great example, have re-opened the workplace as well as restaurants and pubs, and not only has no second wave of cases surfaced, the number of fully recovered continues to increase and the number of active cases continues to decrease.

If there is a large number of individuals carrying the Coronavirus combined with renewed spread of COVID-19, we would see it occurring in Europe and Canada as we sit here right now on Friday, May 20, 2020.  As tracked through combination of World Health Organization, the CDC and Johns Hopkins, here are the numbers of active cases and fully recovered past-COVID-19 cases for this set of countries:

  • Italy: 60,960 active cases — 134,560 fully recovered
  • Germany: 11,840 active cases — 159,000 fully recovered
  • Spain: 55,219 active cases — 196,958 fully recovered
  • France: 89,753 active cases — 63,858 fully recovered
  • Belgium: 32,176 active cases — 15,123 fully recovered
  • Ireland: 1,748 active cases — 21,060 fully recovered
  • Canada: 33,457 active cases — 41,715 fully recovered


The second set of numbers notes the top five Georgia counties reporting the highest number of active cases as of 7:30 AM this morning, noting the number of active cases and the percentage that those active cases directly compute to as a percentage of the corresponding 2020 U.S. Census Bureau population counts:

  • Fulton County: 3,761 active cases — 0.34% of the population
  • DeKalb County: 2,819 active cases — 0.36% of the population
  • Gwinnett County: 2,621 active cases — 0.27% of the population
  • Cobb County: 2,418 active cases — 0.31% of the population
  • Hall County: 2,159 active cases — 1.05% of the population


For reference sake, there are 1,692 remaining active cases in Dougherty County (Albany) and Dougherty still posts the highest percentage COVID-19 presence of any county population in Georgia at 1.88%. In Athens-Clarke County, as of midnight, there are 180 active cases of COVID-19. That represents 0.14% of the Athens-Clarke County population.

I do hope that these numbers assist readers in making personal decisions of choice on how to move forward and embrace the great future ahead!

Thursday, May 21, 2020

There is a pervasive belief that needs to be corrected about COVID-19. Most individuals — older and younger — that I interview on-the-street believe that at least 25-50% of the U.S. population currently or in the past has been infected with the Coronavirus.

Even when I share actual statistics with individuals, they very quickly dismiss the numbers with the perception that few individuals are being tested and that many individuals have had COVID-19 and never actually knew it.

When asked how many individuals in the U.S. have been tested, many believe that less than a million tests have been completed in the U.S. When I share the actual number of tests completed, many dismiss the number and quickly tell me that there really isn’t any accurate testing taking place in the U.S.

I share this information this morning for one specific reason.

Yesterday, I posted that “the number of tests conducted in the U.S. now totals 12.7 million.”  As of 7 AM this morning, the total number of tests completed in the U.S. now totals over 14.1 million.  In 24 hours, 1,529,613 new tests were completed — the highest number of tests for COVID-19 completed in 24 hours on the planet earth. No other country has achieved that daily completion number.

These are tests that assess not only if COVID-19 is currently active in the body, but the tests also assess if the individuals combatted the Coronavirus in the past.

The ratio now between the number of tests conducted and the number of positive COVID-19 identifications is less than 2.5%. In layman terms, for every 40 individuals tested, one individual is testing positive with the Virus in their system.

Based on the misperception that many individuals have been infected with the Coronavirus and never knew it, we would see radical increases in the percentage of positive COVID-19 identification.  Actually the reverse is happening.

The tracked numbers continue to confirm the progress of combatting the Coronavirus.

In the past 24 hours, the number of individuals that have or have had COVID-19 in the U.S. now totals 1,551,668 — an increase of 23,783 positive cases or 1.6%. Statistically, that mirrors the ratio of testing-to-positive assessments.

The number of active cases in the U.S. declined 0.9% to 1,064,095 individuals and the number of full recoveries increased just shy of 400,000 survivors back in mainstream U.S. or 9.2% in the last 24 hours. I will quickly mention that a number of sources I track are burying the number of full case survivors further into their reports.

A total of 843 individuals died either directly or indirectly from COVID-19 in the past 24 hours.  It will be interesting to see how the tracked number of deaths in the U.S. are further evaluated.  Right now, the U.S. accounts for close to one-thirds of all total deaths tracked globally … a level that is comparatively higher now than reported in many members of the EU - European Union.

A directive issued by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the CDC, National Center for Health Statistics, and National Vital Statistics System that was passed over to me yesterday very specifically addresses how COVID-19 deaths need to be better properly classified. In layman terms, there are a lot of cases that are being classified as COVID-19 deaths when, in fact, the death is related more to “chronic conditions, especially those that result in diminished lung capacity such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or asthma.”

Lastly, of the 1,064,095 active COVID-19 cases in the U.S., 17,815 are classified as "serious” or 1.7%. Of those 17,815, an estimated 3,900 are currently in intensive care.

Wednesday, May 20, 2020

As the song says, its been a rainy night in Georgia. The news of the numbers is getting duller by the day — and that is a cause for celebration!

In the last 24 hours, the number of individuals that have or have had the Cpronaviris in the U.S. now totals 1,527,895, an increase of less than 20,000 individuals in the past 24 hours. This is an increase in total cases of 1.3%.

The number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. now totals 1,061,599, a net increase of 12,901.This is an increase of 1.1% in active cases.

The number of tests conducted in the U.S. now totals 12.7 million. The overall ratio of tests conducted and cases confirmed is 12.1%. The ratio of tests conducted and cases confirmed in the past five days totals 5.5%. Translated in layman terms, for every 18 individuals tested, one individual is testing positive with COVID-19. This ratio is expected to broaden — meaning more individuals will be tested before a positive case is identified — because of the lifting of symptoms from individuals now being tested.

Globally, among the Top 15 countries where COVID-19 cases have been tracked and reported — 2,012,800 of the 2,708,069 total global cases of COVID-19 as of 8 a.m this morning — there have been just under 42 million individuals tested. The ratio of tests conducted and confirmed cases in the Top 15 countries is 6.5%. Translated in layman terms, for every 15 individuals tested in the Top 15 countries, one individual is testing positive with COVID-19.

The number of deaths directly or indirectly linked to COVID-19 in the U.S. now totals 92,168 or an increase of 1,552 individuals in the last 24 hours. Of the total number of COVID-19 deaths to-date, multiple sources note that close to 40% — or between 35,000 - 37,000 of the total COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. — have taken place at nursing homes.

Currently, 17,249 of the 1,061,599 — or 1.6% of all active COVID-19 cases — are classified as in “serious condition.”

Currently, in the U.S., 47.5 out of 10,000 individuals current have or have had COVID-19.  As a percentage, that translates out to 0.475% of U.S. population. The reverse that is 99.525% of the U.S. population has not had COVID-19.

The top states in the U.S. in terms of total COVID-19 cases per 10,000 population — posting above the U.S. total level of 47.5 individuals — are listed below as reported in the newly released Worldmedia numbers this morning:

  • New York — 186.5 individuals
  • New Jersey — 170.0 individuals
  • Massachusetts — 127.6 individuals
  • Rhode Island — 122.2 individuals
  • Connecticut — 107.8 individuals
  • District of Columbia (DC) — 105.3 individuals
  • Delaware — 82.5 individuals
  • Illinois — 77.4 individuals
  • Louisiana — 75.4 individuals
  • Maryland — 68.7 individuals
  • Nebraska — 56.1 individuals
  • Pennsylvania — 52.7 individuals
  • Michigan — 52.4 individuals
  • Iowa — 48.7 individuals

Georgia is 20th in ranking at 36.6 individuals.  Mississippi ranks higher than Georgia at 18 in the state listing.  And for the other states that may be of interest among readers, Alabama ranks 27; Florida, 32; California,33; and North Carolina ranks 35.

There are a number of news sources this morning talking about a resurgence of COVID-19 appearing in August-September.  Just FYI… in all of the actual tracking models, no resurgence is projected in the reports.

We are moving forward “over the COVID-19 hump.” Today is Wednesday — and we will soon be over the “weekly hump.”

Tuesday, May 19, 2020

In the last 24 hours, the number of individuals that have or have had COVID-19 now totals 1,508,598 as of 12:01 AM, an increase of just over 22,000, or a percentage of 1.5%. Included below is a chart by key states and it includes an average change rate of cases that has taken place over the last 4 days.

In the last 24 hours, the number of deaths either directly or indirectly linked to COVID-19 increased by 1,003, or just over 1.0%. Globally, the number of deaths in the last 24 hours totals 3,500, again, a record low in daily global deaths. The number of serious COVID-19 cases in the U.S. increased by less than 1% to 16,868 individuals in the last 24 hours.

The number of full recoveries increased over 3.0% to 356,383 cases as of 7:30 AM this morning.

The number of tests completed in the U.S. now totals 12.4 million. The ratio of those testing positive to those taking the test continues to remain at less than 10%.

Here is the breakdown by state with the percent average daily change calculated from numbers since last Friday 5/15.

5 19 2020 Stat Chart

Again, the numbers are calculated from a set of numbers secured through four key tracking sources.

Monday, May 18, 2020

Today, the Wall Street Journal has an article running with the headline, “In The U.S., Glimpse of a Recovery Emerges.”  There is also a set of articles about the blue-collar workforce of America i returning to the manufacturing assembly lines today in many of the Great Lakes states.

The total number of those to have or have had the Coronavirus totaled 1,486,203 as of 12:01 AM this morning — an increase of less than 20,000 new cases or a percentage increase of 1.2%. The slowdown in new cases on a trend line perspective is declining quickly.

Also in the last 24 hours, the number of deaths either directly or indirectly linked to COVID-19 increased by 865… or just under 1.0%.  Globally, the number of deaths around the world registered just over 3,800 total… also one of the lowest daily global numbers tracked.

The Johns Hopkins Institute works with individual states on building projection models. Below is the model for New York state. The chart specifically marks where the state is at today in terms of both identified and suspected case levels, a point well past the top of the “bell-curve.” There are many news sources that continue to speak of a renewal of new cases, but as COVID-19 cases decline in hot-beds like New York, the overall presence of the Coronavirus that only survives inside the human body essentially ends up “checking out."

5 18 2020 New York Projections

The total number of full recoveries as of 7:30 AM ET this morning, now totals just less than 350,000, with an increase of 2.4% in the past 24 hours.  From a statistical standpoint, for every 1 person that died from COVID-19 in the U.S., as of today there are 4 individuals who have now fully recovered and are alive. Projection numbers from the CDC and Johns Hopkins indicate that in four weeks, there may be more individuals who have fully recovered than individuals active with COVID-19.

The number of active cases of COVID-19 did increase by 1.1% in the past 24 hours; however, a number of the COVID-19 tracking sources are indicating that the active cases are being captured in the massive expansion of testing. It is projected that the number of individuals tested for COVID-19 will total over 12.5 million in the U.S. by day’s end today… and hit 13 million tomorrow. The number of completed test increased by 50% from this time last week.

And lastly, the number of serious cases totals 16,355 and remains virtually the same as yesterday.

Sunday, May 17, 2020

In the last 24 hours, the total number of people that have or have had the Coronavirus in the U.S. totaled1,466,312 at 12:01 AM this morning. A total of 23,488 new cases were identified through testing in the past 24 hours. The additional cases identified increased the total cases to-date by 1.6%.

A signature event did take place yesterday, more than 850,000 COVID-19 tests were completed in the U.S. in the past 24 hours bringing the national total of tests conducted to-date to about 40,000 shy of 12 million. The ratio for tests being conducted and the identification of positive COVID-19 cases has dropped to less than 5% — less than 5% of individuals now being tested are testing positive.

The number of deaths either directly or indirectly linked to COVID-19 increased by an additional 1,218 deaths or 1.4%. The deaths were concentrated in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Illinois, Michigan and California.  Here in Georgia, 10 new deaths were reported in the last 24 hours.

The number of full recoveries increased 2.3% to 339,232 individuals. Again, the percentage rate of full recovery is higher than the percentage rate of new COVID-19 cases identified.

Saturday, May 16, 2020

In yesterday’s numbers, I noted there is growing discrepancy on COVID-19 reporting statistics — with much more controversy on the death stats than the identified case stats.

I received a phone call yesterday early evening from a community leader in Montgomery Alabama. He received word on my stats published in Creative Loafing from a colleague of his who lives in Atlanta. He saw the Alabama numbers and Mississippi numbers and was calling about the numbers of deaths linked to COVID-19. I explained in the call that the numbers noted in what I put together are from multiple sources in which significant outliers are dismissed and only consistent numbers are included.

He specifically mentioned a case of two individuals who died in a car accident in Alabama in which one was driving and the other was a passenger. They died from the car accident, but COVID-19 was listed on their death certificates as the cause of death. I cannot confirm what he shared, but can note that not only are there discrepancies in the death statistics on local levels, but on national levels as well.

The weekend Wall Street Journal is packed with articles about discrepancy in COVID-19 death numbers. The article cites a set of March-April numbers reported by the CDC and the National Center of Health Statistics of COVID-19 cases. It was noted in state reports there were 62,375 COVID-19-related deaths, and 37,302 COVID-19 cases noted in death certificates. A large difference.

In the last 24 hours, the number of individuals that have or have had the Coronavirus diagnosed to-date in the U.S. increased by 1.4% to 1,442,824 individuals. The number of active cases increased as well, from 1,008,599 to 1,017,244, or 0.9%.

The number of deaths directly or indirectly related to COVID-19 — and based upon the most reliable sources — increased 2.0% to 87,530.

The number of full recoveries increased to 331,552 … an increase of 1.1%.

As of 8 AM this morning, a total of 11.1 million COVID-19 tests have been completed in the U.S. with 425,000 competed in just the last 24 hours.

As of 12:01 AM this morning, a total of 36,772 individuals have been diagnosed as COVID-19 positive to-date in Georgia with 34,844 active cases currently present in the state. That represents 34.2 cases — active and recovered — per 10,000 individuals in Georgia or 0.342% of the State population.

Of those 36,772 individuals, 6,518 have been hospitalized at some point in time since the first of 2020 when the tracking of COVID-19 cases was initiated in Georgia. A total of 1,549 individuals were admitted into intensive care (ICU).

The county specifics are sourced through the Georgia Department of Public Health in its daily reports.

The five core counties of Metro Atlanta listed in the chart below account for a third (33.8%) of the COVID-19 cases found state-wide. While that looks like a high concentration, it is important to realize that the five counties represent a slightly higher percentage of the Georgia population — 36.8% — so the incidence level is not proportionately high.

If Hall County and Dougherty County — one a new center of outbreak and the other one an initial center of outbreak — are included, the seven counties account for just under 45% of state-wide cases. The two additional counties represent a smaller percentage of the Georgia population and yet drive the number of COVID-19 cases to a higher percentage. Those two counties are, in fact, outbreak counties as the press refers to them.

5 16 2020 Georgia Cases Chart1

There are increases in total cases in Greater Athens-Clarke County as illustrated in the chart below, but the driver of the increases is Barrow County which is experiencing a spill-over from adjacent Hall County.

5 16 2020 Georgia Cases Chart2

Friday, May 15, 2020

I will begin by saying that the numbers reported across tracked resources are reporting the most variance in deaths directly or indirectly attributed to COVID-19 more now than 2-3 weeks ago.

There is a great article in this morning’s Wall Street Journal that focuses on nursing home deaths in New York. I have included that chart below. The chart illustrates the discrepancy between “confirmed” cases and “presumed” cases. Currently, “presumed” cases are included in the “total number of deaths” being reported through the sources used to issue my daily numbers.

5 15 2020 Bar Chart

As of midnight, there are 1,422,460 individuals that have or have had the Coronavirus diagnosed to-date in the U.S. That is an an increase of 0.2%.

The number of active cases decreased to 1,008,599, a decline of 0.7%. You will see in the chart below, active cases are shifting from the Northeast.

The number of full recoveries increased to 328,027, an increase of 2.4%.  While a smaller increase between yesterday and today, the pace level of recovering is still increasing at a faster pace than new cases.

The number of deaths directly or indirectly related to COVID-19 increased 2.0% to 85,834

As of 7:30 AM this morning, the number of tests conducted in the U.S. increased to 10.6 million, with 368,800 tests conducted yesterday.

The chart below puts the numbers into a context of the last five days — Monday of the week through today, Friday. There is limited change in the active case numbers of New York and New Jersey — and that is great news!

States highlighted in blue/gray are states where there is a decrease in active cases today vs. at the start of the week. States highlighted in yellow are states where there is an increase in active cases today vs. the start of the week.  If the state is listed in bold, it indicates that the active cases per 10K individuals is higher than the national number.

5 15 2020 Stat Chart

Lastly, as I comment nearly every day I issue the statistics, the media is hyperventilating right now as the numbers decline. Today’s WSJ contained article after article about both COVID-19 and the crisis ahead and the financial ruins of the U.S. and the bleak days ahead. Thank the dear Lord for Cartoon Network because I had it on in the kitchen too and I was able to balance my time sipping the morning coffee with reading the WSJ and NY Times.

Putting commentary aside, in the last five days, 5,300 people in the U.S. died of COVID-19. Also over the last five days, more than 23,000 people in the U.S. died from heart disease, cancer, stroke, Alzheimers and diabetes.  I hope that journalists and advertisers alike wake up and realize that healthcare challenges extend beyond COVID-19.

I will focus on Georgia counties in tomorrow’s Saturday report.

Thursday, May 14, 2020

What appeared yesterday in Coronavirus shifting continues to evolve in the numbers released for today.

As of 12:01 AM,  there are 1,420,377 individuals that have or have had the Coronavirus diagnosed to-date in the U.S. That is an increase of 0.8%, less than 1.0%.

The number of active cases dropped again:1,028,465 from yesterday to 1,015,999 today. That is a decrease of 1.2%

Recoveries are dramatically increasing. As of midnight, there are now 320,259 fully recovered past COVID-19 cases in the U.S., an increase of 9.7% from yesterday. There are now nearly 4 times as many individuals who have fully survived from COVID-19 than have died from COVID-19.

The testing continues to increase, too. As of 7:30 AM this morning, just under 10.3 million tests have been completed in the U.S.

There are now 84,119 U.S. deaths either directly or indirectly linked to COVID-19. That number increased 2.2% in the past 24 hours. As I reported yesterday, there are cases of death that have been recorded as deaths due to COVID-19 that are still under investigation.

There are news stories circulating that the number of COVID-19 linked deaths is going to increase more than 50% in the next couple of months. Working with statistics is my line of work, I am the first to say that there are many different models that are built, but only a selective number that are assessed as accurate and predictive.

Given the current percentage of COVID-19 cases resulting in death in the U.S., we will need to see another 1.2 million+ new cases of COVID-19 surface in the U.S. over the course of the next few months. The peak time of new cases in the U.S. surfaced at the first of April when new cases increased at a daily percentage rate of 12-15% daily. Given how we are trending this past week, I would not invest much attention in a model predicting a second surge.

In countries like Italy, Switzerland, Spain, France, and Germany, where the Coronavirus was found before in the U.S., the active cases have dropped to significantly low levels with limited, if any, daily increases in new cases as those countries scale back lock-downs.

Between now and last Saturday, a total of five days, the number of total COVID-19 cases in the Athens-Clarke County are increased by ten new cases, from 180 to 190. Of the 190 total cases, the CDC reports that 178 cases are active. The active cases represent 0.14% of the Athens-Clarke County population, or 14 people out of every 10,000 Athenians. There are no new deaths linked directly or indirectly to COVID-19 over the past 5 days.

There are no new cases in the adjacent counties of Oconee and Oglethorpe Counties over the past five days and of those two counties combined, only one person died from COVID-19 back at the first of April. There are no new deaths in either Oconee and Oglethorpe Counties.

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Today is the first time in my tracking and issuing the morning reports, the number of active COVID-19 cases in the U.S. has dropped. More individuals are now recovering than new individuals are becoming infected.  Yesterday May 12, there were 1,041,814 active COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and as of 12:01 AM this morning, there are now 1,028,465 active cases, a DECLINE of 1.3%.

Globally, the number of fully recovered individuals who are back to being active in their day-to-day lives tops over 1.6 million. Here in the U.S., the number of fully recovered individuals totals 291,843 as of midnight, an increase of 11.3% from yesterday.

States reporting less active cases today vs. yesterday that I specifically track include New Jersey, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and Indiana. Other states like New York, Massachusetts, California and Georgia posted increases in active cases less than one percent.

The number of tests completed in the U.S. now tops over 10 million — 10,035,065.  There are forecasts that by end of day Friday, the number will total more than 11 million completed tests. Between yesterday and today, the ratio of tests completed to new cases identified was close to one case identified for every 20 tests completed. Just a week ago, the identification level was 1 case identified for every 6 tests completed.

The number of deaths did increase 2.2% to a new total of 82,339 deaths that were either directly or indirectly linked to COVID-19. However, one of the Worldmeter reports that I track notes more than 5,000 deaths classified as PUI — Patients Under Investigation — are in the U.S.. These are cases initially classified as COVID-19 cases that are now being re-evaluated in terms of the primary cause of death.

Lastly, there are many countries globally in which the number of individuals fully recovered totals more than 2-to-3 times the number of individuals active with the Coronavirus. For example, in Germany, there are 148,700 Germans who have fully recovered from COVID-19 and 16,870 who are currently active with COVID-19. Even in Italy, there are more individuals — 109,039 who have fully recovered compared to 81,266 who are currently active with COVID-19. Such change is taking place in Spain, Turkey, Mexico, Switzerland, Ireland, Austria and Japan.

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

As of 12:01 AM, a total of 1,385,834 cases of COVID-19 have been tracked. This is an increase of 1.3% since yesterday, a slightly lower percentage increase from 1.5% between Sunday and Monday. The number of active cases increased 1.1% from 1,030,515 to 1,041,814.

There is an article in today’s Wall Street Journal that the new case volume that has increased over the last 5-7 days in California is rooted in the southern counties flanking Mexico where Mexicans that have access into the U.S. are seeking COVID-19 treatment in the U.S. vs. Canada. It goes on to say that COVID-19 case volume levels elsewhere in the state are either remaining the same or declining.

The number of deaths either directly or indirectly linked to COVID-19 increased 1.2% with an additional 1,008 deaths taking place in the past 24 hours.

Full recovery cases now total 262,225 and that number increased 2.3% in the past 24 hours.

While the number of tests conducted in the last 24 hours was limited vs. the number conducted over the weekend, a total of 9,619,855 tests have been completed in the U.S. and the total is projected to surpass 10 million by day’s end today. Yesterday, the parameters set for access to testing, a person experiencing some symptoms related to COVID-19 like a fever, were totally removed and now anyone can receive a test. Also yesterday, staff and residents in assisted living facilities in states like New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania will be tested multiple times during a week for tighter control.

Many of the individuals who I speak to and interview out in the field remain convinced that there are many, many more individuals spreading COVID-19 than appears in the testing stats. When comparative stats are shared with individuals, they remain convinced that their perceptions are correct and any tracked stats are either 1) inaccurate because of a lack of a tracking system, or 2) falsified by the government. They do agree that with testing opening up, that much more realistic measurement stats will surface.

Monday, May 11, 2020

The first number I want to share has to do with testing… in the past 24 hours, the number of tests conducted here in the U.S. increased by more than a half million — 526,680 tests — to a new total of 9,444,525. It is possible that by tomorrow, close to 10 million tests will be completed in the U.S.

As of 12:01 AM this morning, there have been a total of 1,367,678 cases of COVID-19 — an increase of 1.5% from the previous day — in the U.S. since COVID-19 first started being tracked in this country. What is more important is that the number of active cases increased 0.1% from 1,029,198 the day before to 1,030,545 at midnight last night.

The reason why active case numbers are not increasing as much is because full recoveries are now outpacing new COVID-19 cases.

Between yesterday and midnight, the number of full recoveries posted at 256,336 individuals — an increase of 7.7%. There were nearly the same number of recoveries as there were new cases.

A total of 750 individuals died directly and/or related to COVID-19 in the U.S. with nearly 40% occurring in two states, New Jersey and Massachusetts. New York only accounted for 5% of the deaths yesterday and less than 10% of new cases.

There are now 16,514 serious cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. and that number is lower than the day before as well. Serious cases of COVID10 represent 1.6% of the total number of active cases overall, translating to 98.4% of these currently infected with COVID-19 are not classified as “serious.”

Sunday, May 10, 2020

As of 12:01 AM this morning, there are now 1,321,785 individuals in the U.S. that have or have had COVID-19. That is an increase of 1.9% from yesterday.

Based on the number of tests administered yesterday, 280,000, and the number of new cases, 25,324, the ratio of new positive cases vs. tests administered is now down to less than 10% testing positive with COVID-19.  While testing is much more accessible today versus two weeks ago, the percentage of people testing positive is now less than 1 out of every 10 individuals being tested. That is taking place as staying anchored at home is easing up across the majority of States in the U.S. and more individuals are interacting with one another.

As I projected in yesterday, the number of COVID-19 tests would exceed 9 million administered before the end of the week. The number of tests administered in the U.S. is anticipated to break 9 million before noon today.  There are projections that by this same time next Sunday, there will be close to 14 million tests completed in the U.S.

As of 12:01 AM this morning, there are now 1,029,198 individuals with active cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. That is an increase of 0.9% from yesterday.  There are now 238,080 individuals that have combatted the Coronavirus and are back active in mainstream U.S.A. The number of individuals beating COVID-19 and back active increased 6.4% in the last 24 hours.

And last, the number of serious cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. has declined. As I reported yesterday, there were 16,978 serious cases in the U.S. and as of this morning, there are now 16,816 cases, a drop of 162 cases.  That drop factors in the number that died in the last 24 hours.

I hope that many of you take the time to get out of the house and at least go for a walk.

Saturday, May 9, 2020

I will open with a set of statistics featured in a Wall Street Journal Weekend Edition article that puts COVID-19 into perspective with other mortality issues in the U.S. The article quotes Bob Anderson, chief of mortality statistics of the National Center for Health Statistics.

From January 1—April 30, 202 there have been more than one million deaths combined in the U.S. from health conditions other than COVID-19. They include heart, cancer, chronic respiratory, strokes, diabetes, intestinal and digestive issues. As of this morning, there have been over 77,000 deaths directly linked to or associated with COVID-19.

That is, more than three times as many people have died from heart ailments than from COVID-19; nearly three times as many people have died from cancer than from COVID-19; and, close to the same number of people have died from strokes as from COVID-19.

The article also notes that there is a significant share in the number of deaths linked to COVID-19 in which the individuals were battling cardiac-, cancer-, and stroke-related cases, during which time they were infected with COVID-19 but actually died from the condition they were battling.

As of midnight 12:01 AM this morning, there are now 1,312,785 individuals in the U.S. that have or have had COVID-19. That is an increase of 3.7% identified cases since yesterday. Nearly all of the the newly identified cases are being identified through the expanded COVID-19 testing. The additional 46,834 cases identified in the past 24 hours can be directly compared against the 341,284 tests conducted in the past 24 hours. Those numbers translate to an identification rate of 13.7% positive testing result — a percentage that continues to decline.

Numerous sources on national and state-wide levels are now forecasting a significant decline of new cases, in which the level of new cases will decline to pre-March levels within the next 3-4 weeks. Below is the chart forecasting cases in New York state, the state most ravaged by COVID-19. The chart below is issued by World Meter and is constructed from nearly the same sources from which I track the statistics I issue each morning: the CDC, World Health Organization and Johns Hopkins.

The number of currently active cases of COVID-19 today totals 1,019,567 — a number now over a million — however, the number of active cases increased only 2.1% from yesterday, a percentage that also is on the decline. Of the currently active cases, only 16,978 are classified as “serious” and just under 3,500 of the cases are housed in Intensive Care in which a ventilator may or may not be in use. This translates to 1.7% of the active cases classified as “serious” and requiring some form of hospitalization.

There are now 223,749 fully recovered individuals with the majority of those recovered found in the initial states where the Coronavirus cases first were tracked.

As of 12:01 AM this morning, there are currently 30,439 active COVID-19 cases  in Georgia. That translates to 28.3 COVID-19 cases per 10,000 Georgia residents. This compares to a national level of 30.8 COVID-19 cases per 10,000 U.S. residents.

Of those active cases, 5,976 currently are, or, at some point, had been hospitalized. There are currently 1,405 individuals battling COVID-19 that are classified as “serious” and may or may not be housed in Intensive Care in Georgia. This translates to 4.3% of the active cases.

The chart below breaks down the number of total confirmed cases and deaths as reported one week ago, on May 2, and in the numbers issued at midnight leading into today, May 9. Interestingly these greater Atlanta, Albany, Gainesville and Augusta counties account for 50% of the total confirmed COVID-19 cases and 46% of COVID-19 direct and indirect reported COVID-19 deaths tracked in Georgia.

(INSERT 5_9_table_1)

As reported in the local Atlanta media, there is an increased rate of new cases in Hall County (35%) and a significant leveling in Dougherty County (3%).

In the Greater Athens area, the chart below offers a similar comparison from one week ago. It is very important to note that the six “Greater Athens” counties account for 3.4% of the Georgia state population, but 2.0% of confirmed COVID-19 cases and 1.9% of deaths either directly or indirectly linked to COVID-19. That case level of 2.0% translates to a comparative index of 59 which translates to the an occurrence level that is 41% below the Greater Athens proportionate share of the State population — or in layman terms, 41% “below average.”

Keeping in mind that the confirmed case numbers remain low, the most significant increases since last week are found in Barrow (36%) and Jackson (24%) counties — the two counties that also border Hall county to the north. There are no increases posting in Oconee County in cases as well as deaths.

(INSERT 5_9_table_2)

As I have said before, I believe television and radio broadcast news media are clawing for news stories to inflate their ratings of audience engagement.

Friday, May 8, 2020

My COVID-19 test results came back negative. I do not have the Coronavirus nor are there any indications that I ever had it in the past. I feel honored to be part of 8.3 million Americans that, as of this morning, have been tested. Because I did not have any visible symptoms, I paid the $50 out of my own wallet to take the test.

As shared yesterday, the number of tests administered in the U.S. is increasing by approximately 300,000 each day.

The Wall Street Journal reported this morning that it is goal of the government in Washington to increase the number of tests completed per day to 750,000 — 1 Million in the next 7-10 days.

Among individuals being tested, those testing positive are now hovering around 14%. In most cases, to be tested, an individual has to show some signs of suspicion of COVID-19.

The percentage testing positive is declining. Ten days ago, the percentage testing positive was hovering around 20%.

There is strong perception — especially among the public age 65+ — that there is a high number of individuals positive with COVID-19 who are not showing any signs and are freely walking the public streets. If this is the case, we will see the rate of individuals testing positive with COVID-19 rise over the course of the next few weeks.

There are now 1,291,357 individuals who have or have had the Coronavirus confirmed to-date in the U.S., an increase of 1.6% from yesterday.

Of those 1,291,357 individuals, 998,445 remain active with the COVID-19, 75,662 have passed and 217,250 are now recovered. The number of individuals dying increased 3.0% in the last 24 hours and the number of individuals fully recovered increased 2.0% in that same time frame.

The six states with the highest concentration of COVID-19 changed yesterday with California replacing Michigan. The news media did highlight the concentration of COVID-19 yesterday in its reported content.  Those six states are New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Illinois, Pennsylvania and now California.

The six states represent 27% of the U.S. population, but account for 58% of the total COVID-19 cases that have been tracked in the U.S., 61% of current active cases, 64% of deaths directly or indirectly  linked to the Coronavirus and 35% of full recoveries to-date.

They are:

  • New York — 337,421 total cases; 255,509 active cases; 26,365 deaths; and 55,547 full recoveries
  • New Jersey — 135,106 total cases; 125,151 active cases; 8.834 deaths; and 1,121 full recoveries
  • Massachusetts — 73,721 total cases; 61,051 active cases; 4,552 deaths and 8,119 full recoveries
  • Illinois — 70,873 total cases; 67,117 active cases; 3,111 deaths and 645 full recoveries
  • California — 62,250 total cases; 49,988 active case; 2,535 deaths; and 9,727 full recoveries
  • Pennsylvania — 62,250 total cases; 51,330 active cases; 3,992 deaths and 1,080 full recoveries
  • (Georgia continues to rate in the Top Ten or Top 15, depending on which statistics you review.)

Here are the states with the percentage that each state accounts for active COVID-19 cases in the U.S. as of this morning and the percentage each state accounts for of the U.S. population. These eight states together represent another 24% of the U.S. population, but only account for just over 15% of the currently active COVID-19 cases in the U.S.

  • Michigan — 2.56% of active COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and 3.04% of the U.S. population
  • Florida — 3.66% of active COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and 6.65% of the U.S. population
  • Georgia — 2.99% of active COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and 3.24% of the U.S. population
  • Indiana — 1.96% of active COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and 2.04% of the U.S. population
  • Ohio — 2.04% of active COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and 3.55% of the U.S. population
  • North Carolina — 1.12% of active COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and 3.21% of the U.S. population
  • Alabama — 0.87% of active COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and 1.48% of the U.S. population
  • Mississippi — 0.39% of active COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and 0.90% of the U.S. population

Thursday, May 7, 2020

Today some interesting trending stats are coming out of Europe. Also, I do allocate time to tracking the sources and understanding variances. When variances do occur, I pass that information along.

There is a variance in the numbers released yesterday in terms of the number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. Yesterday, there was a set of past deaths that took place in New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Michigan about two weeks ago that initially were not linked with the COVID-19 Coronavirus, but yesterday were re-classified as linked to COVID-19. As a result, an additional 1,300 deaths were allocated to totals yesterday that are from the past.

While the base numbers below do include those additional cases, the percentage increases do not.

As of 12:01 AM this morning, there are now 1,254,765 individuals who have or have had the Coronavirus confirmed to-date in the U.S. — an increase of 2.0% from yesterday. The percentage increase is slightly higher from yesterday’s increase — 2.0% vs. 1.5% from yesterday.

There are now 975,3123 active cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. — an increase of 1.6% from yesterday, and a slightly higher percentage from yesterday’s increase — 1.6% vs. 1.0% from yesterday.

The active cases translates to 0.295% of the U.S. population is active with COVID-19; rounded up, 99.7% of the U.S. population is not, as tracked and measured by the most reliable sources.

There are now 212,981 full recoveries in the U.S. — an increase of 6.2% in the last 24 hours. Recoveries are advancing at a higher pace than new cases and deaths in the U.S.

Of the 975,312 COVID-19 active cases in the U.S., 15,827 are classified as “serious” in terms of status or 1.6% of total active cases. Of those serious cases, sources like CNN and MSNBC reported in the last two days that less than 15% of individuals hospitalized are on ventilators and the number of patients on ventilators has declined to one of the lowest levels in the U.S.

There is significant recovery stats vs. currently infected levels in Europe that showcases the trend that is just now taking place in the U.S.:

  • Italy: 91,528 active cases — 93,245 full recoveries
  • Spain: 68,466 active cases — 159,359 full recoveries
  • France: 94,410 active cases — 53,972 full recoveries
  • Germany: 23,191 active cases — 137,696 full recoveries
  • Belgium: 29,711 active cases — 12,731 full recoveries
  • Sweden: 16,389 active cases — 4,074 full recoveries
  • Canada: 31,093 active cases — 28,171 full recoveries
  • Mexico: 7,149 active cases — 23,352 full recoveries.



Lastly, in a set of one-on-one interviews I am doing for a research study, I have asked a number of individuals their perceptions of COVID-19 in the U.S.

The vast majority of individuals over the age of 65 perceive that there is “a massive number of individuals circulating out in the general public that have the COVID-19 and don’t know that they have it and are out there infecting many more.” Only about a quarter of the Millennials I interviewed perceive a similar situation. The majority of Millennials have limited perceptions of the actual numbers, but do not perceive issues of individuals walking around and not knowing that they have the Coronavirus.

The role of mass media and social media do generate differing perception levels.

Wednesday, May 6, 2020

This morning, there is a set of news stories circulating that the tracking numbers of the COVID-19 are “very irregular” and now “inaccurate” and pace levels are questionable. In the numbers that are reported in my daily updates, the sources have not changed.

There are three sources that are combined together every morning and those sources include the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the World Health Organization and Johns Hopkins University Center. There is very limited variance in the numbers as reported through the three different sources.

In my attempts to keep editorial commentary limited in these updates, I will say that the smaller percentage increases that are now being tracked are receiving limited headline impact in the news stories tracking COVID-19.

As of 12:01 AM this morning, there are now 1,230,765 individuals who have or have had the Coronavirus confirmed to-date in the United States — an increase of 1.5% from yesterday. Sunday-to-Monday, total cases increased by 2.3%. Monday-to-Tuesday, total cases increased by 2.0%.

There are now 964,736 active cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. — an increase of 1.0% from yesterday. Sunday-to-Monday, active cases increased by 2.0%. Monday-to-Tuesday, active cases increased by 1.5%.

There are now 200,626 full recoveries in the U.S. — an increase of 6.7% in the last 24 hours. Sunday-to-Monday, recoveries increased by 3.7%… Monday-to-Tuesday, recoveries increased by 4.4%.

The number of total deaths in the U.S. due to or suspected to be linked to COVID-19 now totals 72,271 individuals — an increase of 3.3% in the last 24 hours. The number of deaths in the last 24 hours did post a significant increase from the percentage increase that appeared on both Monday and Tuesday mornings. Those deaths are concentrated in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Massachusetts and California, accounting for 60% of total deaths in the U.S.

The number of tests is increasing at a rate of approximately 300,000 new tests per day. As of this morning 7.8 million tests have been completed in the U.S. Tomorrow, the number of tests completed is projected to surpass 8 million.  There are some sources tracking the testing that suggest the U.S. will top 10 million completed tests by this upcoming weekend.

Here is a chart of total active cases, new cases in the last 24 hours and the number of cases per population for a select group of States. There are currently 29.2 active cases per 10,000 population in the U.S. country-wide. In Georgia the active cases per 10,000 population is slightly below the national number.

May 6 Chart

 

Tuesday, May 5, 2020

As of 12:01 AM this morning, there are now 1,212,835 individuals who have or have had the Coronavirus confirmed to-date in the U.S. That is an increase of 2.0% from 24 hours ago. The increase yesterday was 2.3% from Sunday.

There are now 954,887 active cases of the Coronavirus in the U.S. The active cases increased 1.5% in the last 24 hours. The increase Monday was 2.0% from Sunday.

There are now 188,068 full recoveries in the U.S. which is an increase of 4.4% in the last 24 hours. The increase yesterday was 3.7%.

The number of total deaths in the U.S. due to or suspected to be linked to COVID-19 now totals 69,922 individuals… an increase of 1,324 or 1.9% in the last 24 hours. The increase yesterday was only slightly lower… 1,154 individuals or a 1.7% increase.

As of this morning, there are now just under 7.5 million tests completed in the U.S. with nearly 300,000 tests completed in just the past 24 hours. Of those tests, over a million tests have been completed in New York state alone.

Some of the local news media are reporting that the CDC is noting a “jump” in the number of new cases in Atlanta and Georgia.  The number of new cases reported in Georgia in the last 24 hours totals 767 and increased the number of active cases to 27,852.

Just to re-anchor readers, Georgia posts a population of 10.7 million. Georgia accounts for 3.2% of the U.S. population, but 2.9% of COVID19 cases.

Monday, May 4, 2020

As of 12:01 AM this morning, there are now 1,188,826 individuals who have or have had the Coronavirus confirmed to-date in the U.S. That is an increase of 2.3% from 24 hours ago.

There are now 941,261 active cases of the Coronavirus in the U.S. The active cases increased 2.0% in the last 24 hours.

There are now 180,152 full recoveries in the U.S. which is an increase of 3.7% from yesterday. The percentage of recoveries is outpacing the increase of new cases.

The number of total deaths in the U.S. due to or suspected to be linked to COVID-19 now totals 68,598… an increase of 1,154 deaths or 1.7%.

As of this morning, there are now 7.2 million tests completed in the U.S.  The U.S. now leads the world in the number of tests administered. The country registering second behind the U.S. is Russia, which has completed just over 4 million tests.

In the state of Georgia, 339 new cases were diagnosed and 5 individuals died in the past 24 hours.

Sunday, May 3, 2020

As of 12:01 AM this morning, there are now 1,160,774 individuals who have or have had the Coronavirus confirmed to-date in the U.S.  That is an increase of 2.6% from 24 hours ago.

There are 920,012 active cases of the Coronavirus in the U.S. and the active cases increased 1.8% in the last 24 hours.

The number of total deaths in the U.S. due to or suspected to be linked to COVID-19 now totals 67,444. The number of deaths increased 2.6% from 24 hours ago.

There are now 173,725 full recoveries in the U.S. which is an increase of 7.5% from yesterday. The percentage increase of recoveries is now outpacing the increase of new cases and the increases of deaths.

The U.S. is just shy of completing 7 million tests - 6,931,132 is the number of COVID-19 completed tests posted as of 6 AM this morning. That calculates out to nearly 210 tests completed per 10,000 U.S. individuals.

Based on the number of tests administered and the number of total cases posting in the U.S., that translates to a positive identification percentage of 17%. Essentially 1 out of 6 individuals suspected with related symptoms of the Coronavirus, are testing positive, the other 5 individuals are not.

The same six states from yesterday — New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Illinois and Michigan — account for the largest share of deaths. California, Texas and Maryland also posted more than 1,000 new cases.

In Georgia, in the last 24 hours, 836 new cases were identified - an increase of 3.1% in active cases — and 8 individuals died. In Georgia, there are 27,127 active cases or 27.5 per 10,000 Georgia residents.

There are 505 active cases posting today in the Athens-Clarke County and the five adjacent counties combined which translates to 13.8 per 10,000 Greater Athens residents. A level that is essentially 50% below the level posting in Georgia state-wide.

Saturday, May 2, 2020


As of 12:01 AM this morning, there are now 1,131,030 individuals that have or have had the Coronavirus confirmed to-date in the U.S. The number of total deaths in the U.S. due to or suspected to be linked to COVID-19 totals 65,753. COVID-19 cases in total increased 3.2% and the number of deaths increased 2.9% from the day before.

To help put this in perspective, two weeks ago on Saturday 4/18, the number of deaths had increased 6.8% from the day before.

Active cases of COVID-19 totals 903,714 which is an increase of 2.8% from the day before — the same rate of increase yesterday.

There are now 161,563 total recoveries in the U.S. with is an increase of 3.7% from yesterday. As I noted yesterday and as also appears in a number of articles in key newspapers in the U.S., the rate of recoveries in outpacing the pace rate of new cases.

As illustrated in the chart below, the new case rate in Georgia is slowing considerably. The “Orange” line is key because it takes the past 7 days and averages the numbers and, subsequently removes daily quirks in the gathering and reporting of the numbers.

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Below is a chart of the Top 10 Georgia counties based on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. These 10 counties account for 50% of the total cases of COVID-19 in Georgia. Most of the counties sit clustered around the city of Atlanta. The survival rate in those counties is 96.1%.

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Next is a chart of Athens-Clarke County and each of the five adjacent counties. These six counties account for 1.9% of the total cases of COVID-19 in Georgia. The 6 counties represent 3.4% of the population of Georgia statewide.

The Athens-Clarke County region COVID-19 cases are essentially 45% below the proportionately “average” number of cases versus the rest of the state … 3.4% of the Georgia population, but only 1.9% of COVID-19 cases in Georgia.

The number of active cases one week ago (418) compared to the number of active cases posting today (507) is an increase of 21%. The increase in Athens-Clarke County is essentially the same as the six county region — a 21.3% gain. The most significant gain is in Jackson County where active cases increased from 72 a week ago to 94 as of this morning … an increase of 30%.

The survival rate in Greater Athens six counties is 95.7%.

Of the total cases in Athens-Clarke County and each of the five adjacent counties, 114 of the 533 confirmed cases to-date have required hospitalization.

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Friday, May 1, 2020

As of 12:01 AM this morning, there are now 1,095,023 individuals who have or have had the Coronavirus diagnosed to-date in the U.S. The number of total deaths in the U.S. due to or suspected to be linked to the Coronavirus totals 63,856. COVID-19 cases in total increased 2.9% and the number of deaths increased 3.6% from the day before.

Active cases of COVID-19 totals 878,843 which is an increase of 2.8% from the day before.

There are now 155,737 total recoveries here in the U.S. as of 12:01 AM, which is an increase of 5.6%.

The pace rate of recoveries is outpacing the pace rate of new cases and deaths.

Here are the top states reporting both total cases and deaths occurring in the past 24 hours:

  • New York — 310,839 cases and 306 deaths
  • New Jersey — 118,652 cases and 458 deaths
  • Massachusetts — 62,205 cases and 157 deaths
  • Illinois — 52,918 cases and 140 deaths
  • Pennsylvania — 47,999 cases and 187 deaths
  • Michigan — 41,379 cases and 119 deaths


In total, these six states account for just under 60% of the total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. to-date and just over 60% of the deaths in the last 24 hours. Those states combined account for just over 21% of the total U.S. population. Those states are accounting for nearly triple their representative percentage of the U.S. population in both the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths.

While Georgia has received its share of commentary on the Governor relaxing stay-at-home and commercial constraints, the state of Georgia accounts for just over 2% of the total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. to-date and just under 2% of the deaths in the last 24 hours. With a population of 10.7 million, Georgia represents just over 3% of the total U.S. population. Georgia accounts for TWO-THIRDS of its representative percentage of the U.S. population in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths.

FYI, California is indeed unique.  It is the most populated state in the U.S. and accounts for just over 12% of the U.S. population.  The state of California accounts for just under 5% of the total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. to-date and only 3% of the deaths to-date. California accounts for less than HALF of its representative percentage of the U.S. population in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths.

Thursday, April 30, 2020

I do not know my personal COVID-19 test results yet, but I anticipate learning today. I will share the results once they come in.

As of 12:01 AM this morning, there are now 1,064,194 individuals that have or have had the Coronavirus diagnosed to-date in the U.S. The number of total deaths in the U.S. due to or suspect to be linked to the Coronavirus totals 60,745. COVID-19 cases in total increased 2.7% and the deaths increased 4.1% from the day before.

While the number of total deaths has more than doubled from two weeks ago, the number of total individuals active with COVID-19 has increased just 42.5%.

Active cases of COVID-19 totals 834,261 and increased 2.5% from the day before.

There are now 147,411 individuals who have fully recovered and are considered back in the general population. The number of those fully recovered increased 3.6% from the day before. The percentage of recovery is projected to increase at a higher pace rate than new cases developing and/or diagnosed.

There are currently 25.9 active cases per 10,000 in the U.S.

Again, there are seven states that account for 60% of the deaths in the last 24 hours: New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio.

In Georgia, the number of deaths increased 6.0% in the last 24 hours while the number of active cases increased 3.2%. There are currently 22.9 active cases per 10,000 in Georgia.

Perhaps the most important chart is immediately below that charts out the daily confirmed number of cases and then the average of cases over a 7-day span.  It is very clear that here in Georgia, the diagnosed cases are on the “other side” of the bell-curve.

4 30 Graph 1


The Fulton County Board of Health issued a more detailed county-specific report with updated numbers and breaks by Census Tract midday yesterday. Fulton County represents a central “slice” of metro Atlanta as the county extends from approximately south of the Airport north to Alpharetta, while including Palmetto, College Park, South Atlanta, Downtown, Midtown, Buckhead, Sandy Springs, Roswell and Alpharetta.

As of 6 AM this morning, there are 2,682 confirmed cases in Fulton County and 103 deaths that are directly or suspected to be linked to COVID-19. That represents 25.2 TOTAL cases per 10,000 in Fulton County.  A block of counties in Southwest Georgia anchored around Dougherty County (Albany Georgia) currently post a much higher active case rate than Fulton County

By dividing Fulton County up into thirds — Central City Atlanta, North Zone, and South Zone, the highest percentage of current cases is concentrated in Central City Atlanta. However, when density of population is added into the assessment, a pocket of higher density is found in about a dozen and half tracts that run parallel with I-285 in the Southwestern side of Fulton County.  (Map attached below).

Of all COVID-19 cases to-date in Fulton County, 491 individuals or 18.3% of the cases required some form of hospitalization.

4 30 Map 2

 

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

My apologies for the delay in delivering The Numbers yesterday. I had a COVID-19 test. I thought if I am authoring daily updates, it is important to be properly assessed.

I would like to start on a Global level, in which I will qualify quickly, there is a lot of doubt that some countries are not accurately tracking cases nor honestly reporting cases.

As of 12:01 AM this morning there have now been 3,152,556 Coronavirus cases tracked around the world, including the number of cases in the U.S.  To put this is perspective, if all of those cases were in the U.S., that number of just over 3 million would not represent a full 1% of the U.S. population.

That said, the next two statistics are key.

To date, globally there have been 218,491 deaths or 6.9 deaths for every 100 individuals infected with COVID-19. To date, there have been 964,840 full recoveries, or 30.6%, nearly one-third of those infected with the Coronavirus.

Of the current active cases, infected patients number 1,969,224. Of those cases 97.1% are in mild condition and at some stage level of recovery at home. There is a global total of 56,880 COVID-19-infected individuals that are in serious or critical levels and being treated in healthcare facilities.

From a comparative standpoint, according to the American Cancer Society, there are currently 1,806,590 active cancer patients undergoing some form of treatment in the U.S. at a healthcare facility on either an inpatient or outpatient level right now.


There are now over one million — 1,035,765 — individuals that have or have had the Coronavirus diagnosed to-date in the U.S. The number of total deaths in the U.S. due to and/or suspected to be the result of the Coronavirus totals 58,355.

The 1,035,765 individuals tracked and reported represents one-third (33.9%) of all cases tracked on a global level to-date.

There are now 142,238 individuals that have fully combatted the Coronavirus, survived and are back active in the U.S. public at-large.

Individuals currently combatting the Coronavirus at some stage of recovery total 834,261 which is an increase of 2.4% from 24 hours ago.

A total of 2,470 deaths directly or related to COVID-19 took place in the U.S. over the past 24 hours — an increase of 5.3%.

Seven U.S. states are  home to more than more than 60% of the deaths in the past 24 hours:

  • New York — 521
  • New Jersey — 398
  • Pennsylvania — 200
  • Michigan — 160
  • Massachusetts — 150
  • Illinois — 142



Those seven states also accounted for just over half (50%) of all new cases reported yesterday.

In Georgia, there are 23,787 currently active cases of the Coronavirus and are concentrated (46% of all cases) in seven Georgia counties:

Here is a more detailed breakdown of those top counties:

  • Fulton — 2,720; 25.5 individuals per 10K residents
  • Dekalb — 1,885; 24.6 individuals per 10K residents
  • Gwinnett — 1,603; 17.0 individuals per 10K residents
  • Cobb — 1,514; 20.0 individuals per 10K residents
  • Hall — 1,177; 56.8 individuals per 10K residents
  • Clayton — 667; 22.8 individuals per 10K residents
  • Dougherty —1,491; 159.6 individuals per 10K residents



There are 472 active cases of the Coronavirus found in the Greater Athens/Athens-Clarke County are and each of the adjacent counties:

  • Athens-Clarke — 142; 11.1 individuals per 10K residents
  • Oconee — 58; 15.4 individuals per 10K residents
  • Barrow — 123; 14.5 individuals per 10K residents
  • Jackson — 78;11.4 individuals per 10K residents
  • Madison — 23; 7.9 individuals per 10K residents
  • Oglethorpe — 48; 32.6 individuals per 10K residents

 

Tuesday, April 28, 2020

There are now 987,160 individuals that have or had the Coronavirus diagnosed to-date in the U.S. The number of total deaths due to and/or suspected to be linked to the Coronavirus totals 55,396.

Of the 987,160 individuals that have or had the Coronavirus, there are now 814,469 active cases, which increased 1.8% from 24 hours ago.

A total of 1,156 deaths directly or related to COVID-19 took place in the U.S. — an increase of 2.1% of total deaths — in the last 24 hours.The number of serious cases,15,143, remains unchanged since yesterday.

The highest number of new cases posted in New York and New Jersey:

  • New York — 4,013 new cases — 1.7% increase
  • New Jersey - 2,150 - 2.1% increase
     

New York and New Jersey combined account for 41% of the total active cases in the U.S.

Georgia accounts for 2.8% of the total active cases in the U.S. and the bulk of those cases remain in Dougherty County, Fulton County, and each of the immediate adjacent counties.

Here is a breakdown of new cases and the percentage that number represents in terms of an increase of active cases:

  • Illinois - 1,980 new cases - 4.6% increase
  • Pennsylvania - 447 new cases  - 1.1% increase
  • Michigan - 432 new cases - 1.6% increase
  • Florida - 610 new cases - 2.0% increase
  • Louisiana - 295 new cases - 3.7% increase
  • Georgia - 744 new cases - 3.2% increase
  • Ohio - 362 new cases - 2.3% increase
  • Indiana - 949 new cases - 6.3% increase
  • Alabama - 121 new cases - 1.9% increase
  • Mississippi - 183 new cases - 3.9% increase
  • Montana -1 new cases - 1.2% increase


More updates tomorrow.

Monday, April 27, 2020

There are now 933,930 individuals that have or had the Coronavirus diagnosed to-date in the U.S.  The number of total deaths due to and/or suspected to be linked to the Coronavirus totals 54,239.

Of the 933,930 individuals that have or had the Coronavirus, there are now 812,966 active cases which increased 3.1% from 24 hours ago.  The number of individuals who have survived the Coronavirus and are now back in mainstream society totals 134,785 and the growth rate of survival is increasing as a percentage each day.

A total of 1,157 deaths directly or related to COVID-19 took place in the U.S. - an increase of 2.2% of total deaths in the last 24 hours.

Nation-wide, there are now 15,143 individuals tracked as in serious/critical condition and are in a hospital.  That is an increase of 33 individuals from yesterday.

As of this morning at 8 AM, there have been 5,470,555 tests completed in the U.S. which translates to the completion of 165.3 tests per 10,000 individuals in the U.S. - that is five times the number of total cases of individuals who have or had the Coronavirus to-date in the U.S. that translates to 29.8 cases per 10,000 individuals.

Lastly, to put the numbers in a context, the National Cancer Institute issued a new release last week that close to 610,000 individuals in the U.S. will die from cancer in 2020.  The number was adjusted upward because testing and post-treatment care has been delayed for a share of individuals.  The American Heart Association also issued new numbers last week based on first quarter 2020 data tracking that 121.5 million Americans currently have some form of Heart Disease.  Here too the AHA, projected the number of deaths to increase because of delays in case care.

More numbers tomorrow with state breakdowns.


Sunday, April 26, 2020

First the numbers … there are 890,524 individuals that have or had the Coronavirus diagnosed to-date in the U.S. The number of total deaths due to and/or suspected to be linked to the Coronavirus now totals 53,082.

Of the 890,524 individuals that have or had the Coronavirus, there are 788,233 active cases in the U.S. — that is an increase of 3.4% over the active cases posting 24 hours ago.

Of the active cases, 15,110 or just shy of 2% are considered serious/critical and are in a hospital as best indicated in admittance tracked by the CDC and Johns Hopkins.

In terms of hospitals, the navy ship that was moved to and docked in New York City is now en route back to Norfolk Virginia. The 1000-bed hospital ship only treated 182 patients. The Jacob Javits Convention Center in New York, which was re-worked as a makeshift hospital, has not seen its 2500 beds filled to capacity, either. Strict admission requirements and the lack of proper equipment necessary to handle COVID-19 patients has prevented any more than 500 patients to be admitted there while Manhattan hospitals are contending with 20,000 patients, according to the Business Insider.

Of the deaths in the last 24 hours related to COVID-19, five states post the highest number of deaths and together account for two-thirds of the deaths — New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Michigan, and California.

There are 22,278 active cases of COVID-19 in Georgia. In the last 24 hours 8 individuals have died in which the Coronavirus played a direct or partial role.

In the U.S., there are currently 23.9 active cases among every 10,000 individuals.  In Georgia, there are currently 21.0 active cases among every 10,000 individuals.

Second, I have been camped out the last few days at my second home in Athens, Georgia.

Athens is well-known for its progressive politics and academic mindsets.  Even though the current Georgia governor is from Athens, there is limited belief among the Athenians that he made the right decision about re-opening a set of businesses that started yesterday. I will guess-ti-mate that at least 65% of the individuals I encountered at Publix, Target, and Home Depot yesterday were wearing masks.  That is about 3-4 times the number of individuals I encounter when I am out and about around my Atlanta residence.

Many folks fear that an new outbreak is bound to occur, especially with restrictions being lifted in Georgia and, likely, elsewhere in the U.S. this coming week.

Interestingly, I spent time with a small group of physicians yesterday as well as shared a conversation with two neighbors who live nearby the Athens Farm House who are pharmaceutical engineers.  In both cases, the driving topic was that the press breeds on hyping fear-anchored speculations and avoids printing actual statistics.  Both groups also highlighted the fact that the Scandinavian countries posted only limited restrictions during the last few weeks with restaurants able to re-open again.

Good comparison.

The number of current COVID-19 cases in Sweden, Norway and Denmark combined totals 24,598 and against a combined population of 21,259,467 individuals, that calculates out to 11.6 active cases among every 10,000 individuals.  Here in Athens-Clarke County, where there have been much stricter regulations to keep individuals in their homes, the 81 active cases reported yesterdays calculates out to 9.4 active cases among every 10,000 individuals.  Another way of looking at the numbers, 99.988% of the population of the three Scandinavian countries combined and 99.991% of Athens-Clarke County do not current have active cases of COVID-19 as far as the testing to-date has indicated.

Finally, there is an excellent editorial in the Wall Street Journal Weekend Edition about a Sanford School of Medicine professor named Dr. John Ioannidis, a health researcher noted by Google and others to be one of the 100 most-cited scientists globally.  Dr. Ioannidis has extensively researched and reviewed statistics since COVID-19 broke out in China. He has estimated a U.S. fatality rate from COVID-19 could be as low as 0.025% or as high as 0.050-1.0%, similar to the flu.

That bearer of good news has been raked by both the media and other academics.

Since then, there are a number of studies published that individuals have forwarded to me.  One of those, a study published last week by the University of Southern California, estimated that the Coronavirus is 28 to 55 times as prevalent in Los Angeles as cases confirmed.  Another New York study released last Thursday reports that an estimated 13.9% of the state and 21.2% the five boroughs of New York City have been infected.

If these additional studies are true, the numbers published by Dr. Ionannidis are smack on target and the comparison to the flu is also valid.

Over the course of publishing the numbers and stats that I issueeach morning, I have received some very sharp criticism for working with numbers "that cannot even be close to what is actually taking place."  Just this last week, my membership at an Atlanta diocese Episcopal church was put on non-active status because "the content of what I cite is not true.”  I am glad that Episcopalians are known for their bourbon and scotch consumption because that was the chalice I grabbed that evening afterwards!

The sun is up here in Georgia this morning and I intent to embrace the day ahead… I encourage you all to do the same.  I anticipate more such news in the coming week as the rate of new cases continues to decline and the rate of full recoveries continues to grow.

Saturday, April 25, 2020:

There are 890,524 individuals who have or have had the Coronavirus diagnosed to-date in the U.S. The number of total deaths due to and/or suspected to be linked to the Coronavirus now totals 51,017.  The number of full recoveries in the U.S. is nearly triple the number of individuals who have died.

Nearly 80% of the deaths that occurred in the last 24 hours took place in five states… New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Michigan and Illinois.

The number of active cases as of 12:01 AM, April 25, totals 762,607, an increase of 1.6% from yesterday.  The number of deaths due to and/or suspected to be linked to the Coronavirus is 1,156 and posted an increase of 2.3% from yesterday.

Nationally, there are currently 23.1 active COVID-19 cases per 10,000 individuals.

As I mentioned yesterday, the number of tests administered here in the U.S. has surpassed 5 million — 5,015,602 completed and tracked as of 8 AM this morning.

Specific to Georgia, there are now 21,561 active cases and 899 deaths that have occurred through midnight last night.

Two interesting sets of numbers that are Georgia specific:
1. Over three-quarters of the deaths (76.5%) took place among individuals age 65+.
2. Literally two-thirds (65.8%) of the deaths involved a pre-existing condition like diabetes, obesity, heart, or Alzheimers.

Dougherty County is still the lead county in terms of Georgia’s deaths on a per population level.

Here is a break-down of the core Atlanta counties and Dougherty County that showcases and provides a comparative against the stats from 2 weeks ago. There are currently 7,287 active cases of the COVID-19 in the five core Atlanta counties or 19.0 individuals per 10,000 individuals.  That compares to 20.1 statewide in Georgia and 23.1 nationwide in the U.S.  Another way of communicating that number is that 99.981% of the population of the five core counties are highly unlikely to be active with the Coronavirus.

(Insert 003 top)

For those of you who might have interest in the Greater Athens area, here are specific numbers of Athens-Clarke County and each of the five adjacent counties. There are currently 418 active cases of COVID-19 or 11.4 individuals per 10,000 individuals.  That compares to 20.1 statewide in Georgia and 23.1 nationwide in the U.S. Another way of communicating that number is that 99.989% of the population of Athens-Clarke County and each of the five adjacent counties are highly unlikely to be active with the Coronavirus.

(insert 004 bottom)

Friday, April 24, 2020

It is Friday and a number of states are entering Phase #1 of reopening the marketplace today.

With the break of today taking place at midnight tonight, there are 868,395 individuals that have or had the Coronavirus diagnosed to-date in the U.S.  The number of total deaths due to and/or suspected to be linked to the Coronavirus now totals 49,861.

There are conflicting numbers of individuals who have or had the Coronavirus and the death count in the releases between yesterday and today.

Regarding the death count between yesterday and today, the number of deaths due to and/or suspected posts an increase of 3,221 new deaths.  From the sources that I work with, the number of deaths actually taking place hover around 2,200. Another 1,000+ deaths now included in the numbers being reported are cases that are questionable and ones where there is some suspicion that the Coronavirus played at least some role. Nearly all of these additional deaths involved either assisted care in a nursing home and/or individuals admitted into the hospital for a serious condition linked to heart, diabetes, obesity, kidney disease or stroke.

The number of active cases as of 12:01 AM Friday, April 24, totals 759,284 with an increase of 4.3% from yesterday.  That increase in cases is attributed to the increase also in the number of individuals being tested.  In just 24 hours, the number of individuals being tested increased by nearly 10% to 4,696,704. There are projections that by this time tomorrow — Saturday morning — there will be more than 5 million Americans tested.

Here is the number of new cases and the percentage impact of the new cases on the number of currently active cases. The first set of states — New York-Florida are states that posted an increase of 1,000+ new cases.  The second set are states that are of interest to individuals receiving this update.

Coronavirus Numbers


I will be tracking the new cases specifically here in Georgia and will be sharing break-outs by key counties in the release tomorrow — Saturday — morning.

Lastly, the new studies showcasing suspected past COVID-19 infections are interesting, but conflicting because the testing and measurement criteria are different. The studies are essentially a “limes to oranges” comparative. Both are citrus fruit, but each distinctively unique. One of the professors from Johns Hopkins that is managing the study being conducted in New York City — that is projecting as many as 2.5 million+ individuals were infected in the past by COVID-19 — was interviewed last night on MSNBC.  He specifically mentioned that the measurement elements are similar, but not a direct match.

Alright… I am off to get my first tattoo down here in Georgia where the shops are about to re-open!

Thursday, April 23, 2020

As of 12:01 AM, April 23, 2020, there are 848,717 individuals that have or had the Coronavirus diagnosed to-date in the U.S.  The number of total deaths due to and/or suspected to be linked to the Coronavirus now totals 46,640.

There are now 131,709 individuals in full recovery in the U.S. and 717,008 active COVID-19 cases.  The U.S. is posting a recovery percentage of 15.5% with the highest rates of recovery — over 20% —- posting now in New York, Michigan and Washington state — some of the first states reporting the presence of the Coronavirus.

New cases of the Coronavirus in the U.S. increased 3.7% from yesterday.

Here in the U.S., as of midnight, 4,325,342 tests had been administered as tracked by John Hopkins. The incidence level of those testing positive with COVID-19 is declining from 1 out of every 5 to now 1 out every 7 individuals.

No other country globally has administered that many tests, however the countries below have administered more tests per 1,000 citizens than in the U.S.
 

  • Portugal
  • Switzerland
  • Italy
  • Germany
  • Ireland


I have not highlighted much on a global level, but thought it will assist putting COVID-19 in perspective.

With the U.S. removed from the global statistics, there are currently 1,778,212 individuals globally that have or had the Coronavirus diagnosed to-date and the reporting secured by John Hopkins, World Health Organization and CDC.  There are now 578,579 individuals in full recovery globally and 1,199,633 active COVID-19 cases.

The percentage of individuals who have had the Coronavirus and now in full recovery represent 32.5% on a global level with the U.S. removed from the tracked numbers and 15.5% as noted above in the U.S. Globally, there are more individuals daily tracked as recovered than new infected cases.


What is key in these stats is that the Coronavirus entered China and other countries in advance of the U.S. so the lifecycle of COVID-19 is at more of an advanced maturity point than here in the U.S.


Globally, the number of individuals that have died directly and/or suspected due to the Coronavirus computes out to 7.7%.  Here in the U.S. that number is 5.5%.  Again, these numbers have risen as more individuals acquiring the COVID-19 have passed through the full cycle of approximately 7-10 days when the Coronavirus is active.

Back here in the U.S., as of midnight last night, there are 21.7 active cases per 10,000 individuals which translates to 99.78% individuals here in the U.S. without the Coronavirus as tracked to-date.

Lastly, what the press is reporting as a “second wave” of the Coronavirus is linked to Dr. Redfield, CEO of the CDC and has been completely taken out of context of the presentation given which was anchored around the fall advent of the flu.  Dr. Redfield was speaking specifically about possible complications for COVID-19 that might impact the survival rate of older individuals become infected by the flu.  He specifically said that those cases might post higher death rates than those who were not affected by COVID-19.

At the high-end, in the most recent CDC release taking place on April 11th, there have been 56 million cases of the flu here in the U.S. that has led to 740,000 hospitalizations and 62,000 deaths.  Right now here in the U.S., there have been 849,000 cases of COVID-19 thus far that has led to an estimated 165,000 hospitalization and 46,700 deaths (rounding up).  The reason why steps were taken to house-bound the U.S. population was directly related to the strain on hospitals in terms of safety/containment and specifically the availability of ventilators needed to address much higher projected cases of COVID-19 than has occurred to-date.

Hope these numbers assist you and your teams in better understanding the context of the environment at-large!


Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Hump Day — and over the hump is exactly what is taking place with the Coronavirus. The politicians are using a different phrase and the media is going crazy trying to find ways to doubt the numbers, but the infection rate of COVID-19 is declining and recoveries are increasing at a faster pace.

As of 12:01 AM, April 22, , there are 818,744 individuals that have or had the Coronavirus diagnosed to-date in the U.S.  The number of total deaths due o and/or suspected to be linked to the Coronavirus now totals 45,042.

While the total number of individuals that have or had the Coronavirus diagnosed to-date in the U.S. increased by 4.1%, the increase of new cases was offset by individuals now in full recovery.

This impacts the number of active cases.

The number of total ACTIVE cases increased from 677,856 to 690,503 — a difference of an additional 12,647 cases.  But, the number of individuals fully recovered increased from 108,782 to 128,241 — a difference of an additional 19,459 cases.  Active cases increased 1.9% in the last 24 hours.  Full recoveries increased 17.9% in the last 24 hours.

Two weeks ago active new cases increased by 8.8% in the last 24 hours vs. 1.9% currently.

The number of deaths increased by 6.5% with an additional 2,747 passings in the last 24 hours.

Nearly 95% of the deaths are occurring among individuals designated as “serious, critical cases.”  Currently, of the 690,503 active cases in the U.S., there are 14,016 critical care cases or 2.0% of the active cases.

Of the critical cases, nearly 85% are individuals with a pre-existing condition like heart, diabetes, obesity, Alzheimers and/or kidney issues.

The States posting the largest number of deaths:

  • New York — 767
  • New Jersey — 376
  • Pennsylvania — 266
  • Michigan — 232
  • Massachusetts — 152
  • Illinois — 119


A wonderful news story ran on the BBC about COVID-19 in the UK and a comparative statistics study.

The study compared the incidence levels of the Coronavirus found to be occurring among workers in the grocery and pharmaceutical stores compared to the UK population at large.  The study found no greater incidence level of the Coronavirus among those interacting with others in public vs. the overall public at-large where an estimated 65% were staying in their homes.

Today, the Wall Street Journal ran an editorial that notes a study measuring “fear of catching the Coronavirus.”

The WSJ study was conducted over the past weekend against a national sample that mirrors the U.S. population and geographics. The study found that 73% are “very fearful” that someone in their family will catch the Coronavirus — an increase from 43% in the same study conducted 4 weeks ago.

The study goes on to find that 73% of the participants over the week believe that worse is yet to come. The sources noted most by survey participants focused on the news networks and print newspapers including the NY Times, USA Today and WSJ.

It is my mission to turn off the TV in the evenings. As the evenings stay lighter longer, it is a heck of a lot better when I take the dog for an evening walk than to sit in front of the TV and watch not only the network news forecast doom, but the commercials forecast a home-bound future.



Tuesday, April 21, 2020

As of 12:01 AM, Tuesday, April 21, there are 786,138 individuals that have or had the Coronavirus diagnosed to-date in the U.S. The number of total deaths due to and/or suspected to be linked to the Coronavirus now totals 42,295.

The total number of individuals that have or had the Coronavirus diagnosed to-date in the U.S. increased by 3.6%. Yesterday the cases increased by 4.0%. The number of individuals active with the Coronavirus increased by slightly more: 3.9%.

There are currently 677,856 individuals who actively have the Coronavirus and 108,782 individuals who have fully recovered and are actively back to their daily routine

Those active with the Coronavirus represent 20.0 individuals of every 10,000 U.S. citizens.

Nearly 92% of the deaths in the last 24 hours occurred in 7 states:

  • New York & New Jersey combined - 57.7%
  • Connecticut - 11.7%
  • Pennsylvania - 6.4%
  • Massachusetts - 5.9%
  • Georgia - 5.4%
  • Michigan - 4.4%


For fellow Georgians that receive news feeds from the local media and local politicians, I elected to anchor the reporting with more actual numbers. The following numbers are a combination of information released this morning by the Georgia Department of Public Health and CDC.

The total number of individuals that have or had the Coronavirus diagnosed to-date in Georgia is 19,399. The number of individuals active with the Coronavirus is 18,419 or 17.3 individuals per 10,000 Georgia citizens. That translates to 99.827% of individuals in Georgia do not have the Coronavirus as indicated in the testing completed to-date.

That number of 18,419 can be visualized as such: sitting in the prime seats between the 40 yard lines on the South Side of the UGA Dooley-Sanford Stadium from the base of the field all the way up to the press box — and that is only on one side of the stadium!

Dougherty County is the number one county in Georgia affected by the Coronavirus… it accounts for 0.85% of the Georgia population, but 7.8% of active cases in the state.

Gainesville-Hall County is also a county where there is a disproportionate share of individuals affected by the Coronavirus… it accounts for 1.9% of the Georgia population, but 3.6 of active cases in the State.

News media like the AJC and WSB Radio seems transfixed on positioning Atlanta as the geographic epicenter of the state and individuals affected by the Coronavirus. The five counties that I treat as the “Core Counties” of Atlanta — Fulton, DeKalb, Gwinnett, Cobb and Clayton — account for 35.0% of the Georgia population and 34.2% of active cases in the State. Essentially, there is no higher level of Coronavirus cases in those Core Counties than statistically expected.

And for those in the greater Athens-Clarke County area, residents should keep the numbers in perspective. The six counties that I treat as the “Core Counties” of Athens — Clarke, Oconee, Barrow, Jackson, Oglethorpe, Madison — account for 3.5% of the Georgia population, but 1.9% of active cases in the State. The six counties together post a population of 372,144 and as of this morning, tracked by both Georgia Department of Public Health and the CDC, there is a combination of 363 active and fully recovered individuals tracked — 0.09754% of the population.

There are a set of interesting research studies being conducted right now to assess current and past incidence levels of COVID-19 among a representative population of the public at-large. There are some early news reports that there is a significantly larger scope of the population that are testing positive to have fully survived than suspected. These studies can be interesting assessments to "help turn on more lights in the dark room” of insight. However, it is very critical that exactly the same testing method and exactly the same strain of Coronavirus as tracked and reported by key sources be part of the research studies. A number of the studies being reported are not following like-methodology nor tracking the specific match of COVID-19.

Lastly, there is a great Holiday coming up that I hope all plan to celebrate with some good salsa, margaritas and lime… Cinco de Mayo. From all indications, many States may begin Phase 1 Recovery Plans by then!

Monday, April 20, 2020

As of 12:01 AM, Sunday, April 20, there are 759,467 individuals that have or had the Coronavirus diagnosed to-date in the U.S.. The number of total deaths due to and/or suspected to be linked to the Coronavirus now totals 40,553.

While the total number of individuals that have or had the Coronavirus diagnosed to-date in the U.S. increased by 4.0%, the number of individuals active with the Coronavirus increased by slightly less: 3.3%.

There are currently 652,276 individuals who actively have the Coronavirus and 107,191 individuals who have fully combatted the Coronavirus and are actively back in their daily life in the U.S. Those active with the Coronavirus as tracked by the CDC represents 19.7 individuals of every 10,000 individuals in the U.S. As a percentage, that translates to 99.8% of Americans are not active with the Coronavirus as diagnosed through the testing and medical observations assessed to date.

The number of deaths taking place in 24 hours is declining too. The number of individuals dying between yesterday and today is 1,539 vs. 1,867 dying between Saturday and Sunday.

On a timeline basis, two weeks ago, the combined sources used to track COVID-19 reported 337,310 active cases of the Coronavirus and 9,634 deaths due to the Coronavirus (suspected cases were not tallied in this number).

For a comparative, during that same time of two weeks in which 30,919 individuals passed directly or related to COVID-19, a total of 63,402 died from one of five other conditions:

  • 26,652 died from heart disease
  • 22,974 died from cancer
  • 5,734 died from a stroke
  • 4,814 died from Alzheimers
  • 3,228 died from diabetes

Also during that same 14 day period, an estimated 145,600 new Americans were born.

Sunday, April 19, 2020

As of 12:01 AM, April 19, there are 730,532 individuals that have or had the Coronavirus diagnosed to-date in the U.S. The number of total deaths due and/or suspected to be linked to the Coronavirus now totals 38,921.

While the total number of individuals that have or had the Coronavirus diagnosed to-date in the U.S. increased by 4.1%, the number of individuals ACTIVE with the Coronavirus actually declined from 642,023 yesterday to 631,509 today. This is the first time that the active number has dropped.

The number of deaths increased from 37,054 to 38,921 ... an increase of 5.0%. Yesterday, the raw number of deaths taking place in 24 hours posted at 2,535 and an increase of 6.8%. The number between yesterday and today is 1,867.

As of this morning, there are now 3,722,200 tests that have been conducted in the U.S. Globally, the next highest number of tests conducted posts in Russia at 1,940,000 tests conducted.

The “healing and recovery” is beginning to surface in the numbers. All three of the resources that I use to compile the reports note a large jump in the number of cases of individuals who are now fully recovered and back out in the public. The number of recovered increased from 59,452 yesterday to 99,023 today… an increase of 66.5%.

The recovery is most visible in the states that were first to report the outbreak:

  • Washington State - 19.8% of cases now fully recovered
  • Michigan - 18.0% of cases now fully recovered
  • New York - 17.2% of cases now fully recovered



Yesterday afternoon I had a great conversations with a number of leading physicians here in Georgia.

One of the physicians is the past chair of a network for 800+ independent physicians in the state of Georgia. Besides voicing a lack of spread of the Coronavirus among youth including college students… there was significant commentary about the way in which factual information has been molded for political and news media gains. Perhaps the most interesting part of the call was that many independent physicians are now actually administering COVID-19 tests privately in their own practices and, they went on to share, the independent physicians are not obligated to report the results.

A number of individuals copied on the daily updates have raised the question as to whether there are vast more individuals who are infected by the COVID-19 and have not been accounted for in the numbers. That is a good question and one that many individuals I encounter in on-the-street interviews also speculate. In the conversations with the physicians yesterday, that issue also came up.

As one of the physicians shared yesterday, COVID-19 is a Coronavirus. There are many different forms of Coronavirus that are currently active around the world.

If COVID-19 has spread and not tracked, then there are a couple very quick key observations:

  1. It is not near as serious of a Coronavirus as the media reported… the actual death rate might be closer to the common flu.
  2. To-date, the COVID-19 strain of Coronavirus has been linked to an incident in China and therefore the timeline of occurrence is linked to when the the COVID-19 Coronavirus entered the U.S. which was about 90 days ago


Friday, April 18, 2020

The number of individuals diagnosed to-date increased by 4.5% and the number of deaths increased by 6.8% from yesterday. A week ago, the number of individuals diagnosed to-date increased by 7.1% and the number of deaths increased by 11.9% from the day before.

The breakdown of the 2,535 deaths in the past 24 hours (as of 12:01 AM, April 18) by percentage:

  • New York/New Jersey - 53.1%
  • Michigan - 5.3%
  • Pennsylvania - 4.7%
  • California - 3.6%
  • Illinois - 2.4%
  • Florida - 2.3%
  • Louisiana - 2.2%
  • Georgia - 2.0%
  • Ohio - 1.1%
  • Alabama - 0.6%
  • Mississippi - 0.4%


In terms of the 701,475 individuals that have or had the Coronavirus diagnosed to-date… 642,023 are currently active with the Coronavirus and 59,452 are now fully recovered and released into the population. Those recovering increased by 6.1% from yesterday.

In the U.S., currently there are 19.4 individuals per 10,000 that actively are combatting the Coronavirus or as another way of viewing the number, 99.98% of the U.S. population are not actively combatting the Coronavirus as per those tested to-date. The number of individuals tested to-date in the U.S. is 3,527,257 and increase of more than 300,000 individuals tested in the last 24 hours.

Below is specific breaks here in Georgia where 17,432 that have or had the Coronavirus as diagnosed to-date. The number of active cases is 16,733 or 15.6 individuals per 10,000 compared to 19.4 per 10,000 nationally. Rounding up numbers, there is a similar 99.98% of the Georgia population are not actively combatting the Coronavirus as per those tested to-date.

Key in the chart below is the impact of the Coronavirus in Albany (Daugherty County) and the impact in the core counties of Atlanta. The incidence level of the Coronavirus in Greater Athens is will below comparative averages in Atlanta, Albany and state-wide.

Lastly, as previously shared, access to factual statistics even from the most trusted sources can get confusing. Yesterday afternoon, the media went wild again with headlines stating that “The cases of the Coronavirus in Wuhan could be 50 times the level initially reported.” In this morning’s stream of data, the number actually increased from 1,290 deaths to 3,869 in Wuhan yesterday. The primary discrepancy was accounting for the deaths that took place in rural areas around Wuhan that were initially recorded to another cause of death. Sound familiar to what went on here in the U.S. yesterday?



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