Searching for surprises

Reporting that Georgia’s Senate race is getting close is kind of like predicting your alcoholic Uncle Vinnie is going to get drunk at Thanksgiving dinner.

Everybody, including both campaigns, knew the contest between Sen. Max Cleland and Rep. Saxby Chambliss would get tight. That’s because the state is evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, and unless campaigns are funded wildly unevenly — see Gov. Roy Barnes — or the candidate can take advantage of the party tag while avoiding the party baggage — see Sen. Zell Miller — Georgia’s statewide races will always come down to a few percentage points.

The only thing that seems truly surprising about the Cleland/Chambliss race is what hasn’t happened. Many pundits expected anti-Cleland, third-party issue ads from the NRA, anti-abortion groups and pharmaceutical companies. Unions, pro-choice and environmental organizations were supposed to hammer Chambliss. It never materialized save for a few Sierra Club ads and cable-only commercials from a pro-life organization.

The interest groups stayed in the six toss-up states. Moreover, in some cases in Georgia — unions, for example — special interests may have done more harm to the candidate than good.

That, however, doesn’t mean that “Cleland getting beat will ... be a shock,” says Georgia College and State University government professor Chris Grant, who has polled the race for a Macon television station. It just means that the issue groups spend carefully and “look for good bets.” Chambliss and the Bush White House managed to keep the focus on the downstate lawyer’s perceived strength — national security issues — but they didn’t change the odds.

The campaign has broken along partisan lines about a week sooner than observers thought it would. And just like in 1996, the suspense centers around whether Cleland can hold off Chambliss’ charge. The race will be determined by which candidate can get his base to the polls. That sounds a lot like an echo of the conventional wisdom that’s been out there since January.

So which races are ripe for an Election Day surprise? CL canvassed Georgia politicos and a few out-of-state folks for answers. This election season, nobody wants to step too far out on a limb.

University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock looks for at least one of the Democrat-friendly congressional districts to go to a Republican — either Phil Gingrey in the 11th District or Max Burns in the 12th District.

Grant says Jim Marshall seems to have locked up the 3rd District, while at least one out-of-state pollster says the Barnes/Sonny Perdue gubernatorial race is closer than the polls suggest.

The strangest news item from the Senate race comes, not surprisingly, from the Libertarian Party. It’s circulating e-mails soliciting donations to pay for a mailing to black Georgia Democrats. The goal is to capture a percentage of the black vote for Libertarian candidate Sandy Thomas and knock Cleland out of office.

Fresh off tangling with Rep. Bob Barr in his 7th District, Ron Crickenberger, the national political director of the Libertarian Party, sees another opportunity to influence state politics.

“Both Mr. Barr and Mr. Cleland have been some of the worst drug warriors in Congress, and that’s particularly why we’re going after these folks in Georgia,” Crickenberger says. “It’s not that we’re trying to get ... Chambliss in office. That’s not what we’re about. In this particular case, we’re doing what we can to promote our candidate ... but at the same time, if we can cause one of our targets to lose and we can put a fresh face in there, we think that’s probably a good deal.”

The perplexing thing about Crickenberger’s plan is that Chambliss and Cleland differ little on drug policy, and when it comes to the privacy and freedom issues the Libertarian Party supposedly cares about, Chambliss’ record is just plain awful — votes against abortion and reasonable seizure laws are among a litany of anti-civil liberties votes. The only ideological similarities between Libertarians and Chambliss lie in two issues — tax policy and gun control. Still, Crickenberger says the campaign has collected close to $20,000, and about $23,000 can cover mailings to 36,015 voters. Those mailings will tout Libertarian candidate Sandy Thomas and his position on school choice, which Crickenberger says resonates with black voters.

UGA professor Bullock doubts the effort will have much of an effect.

“Are [black voters] going to vote based on school choice alone, or the maintenance of social programs and whether they want a Democrat- or Republican-controlled Senate?” Bullock asks. “This is one of the longest of shots.”

kevin.griffis@creativeloafing.com


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